Purdue Basketball: Maryland Preview

Maryland (12-6, Big10 3-4) vs #3 Purdue (18-1, Big10 7-1)

Maryland Roster

Maryland on Offense

Maryland is decent on offense, not good, not terrible, but acceptably mediocre. Efficiency is the best part of attack. They’re 110.3 adjusted efficiency rating is 63rd in the nation. They play at a moderate pace, with and average possession length of 17.2 (131ist in the nation). Overall, they play slightly slower than the national average of 67.4 with and adjusted tempo of 66.1 (244th).

They’re not good from behind the arc, shooting 30.9% (305th) but are good from 2, shooting 53.6%. Their overall effective field goal percentage of 50.8 is good for 151st in the nation. With the exception of the Ohio State game, where they went off for 80, they like to play games in the 60’s.

Point guard Jahmir Young leads the Terps in scoring at 15.8 a game. He’s the one player on Maryland with the capability of going off for a big number, and he’s on a heater over the last 3 games, after putting up 30 on Ohio State, 20 on Iowa, and 26 on Michigan. If Maryland has designs on knocking off Purdue in Mackey, they’re going to need Young to stay hot. He doesn’t shoot well from deep, hitting only 19-70 (27%) on the season, but he makes up for that by getting to the rim and drawing fouls. He draws 5.9 (51st) per game and shoots 80% when he gets to the stripe. Against Ohio State he hit 13-15 free throws and against Michigan he hit 8-10. Purdue would be well served to keep him off the line.

In the front court, Julian Reese gives them an efficient low post scorer. His effective field goal percentage of 62.6% is the 44th best in the nation. He does all his work inside the arc and hasn’t attempted a 3 this season. He’s a big strong dude who doesn’t work outside his strengths. Donta Scott, on the other hand, is a stretch 4, his 77 attempts from 3 are second on the team, only behind shooting guard Donald Carey’s 100 hoists. Scott shoots a bunch of 3’s but he doesn’t hit many, hitting only 30% on the year. Over the last two games he’s reigned that in a bit and has hit 2-4 from 3 while attacking inside the arc. I expect him to try and drag Furst outside to start the game and try to attack Gillis on the inside.

Maryland on Defense

The Terps are better on defense than they are on offense. Their 95.5 (37th) puts them in the top tier of teams. They do a good job of making teams take contested shots, which leads to only allowing a 46.2% (36th) effective field goal percentage. They use their long armed guards and wings to make 3 point shooting tough. The Terps have held team to 30.3% (44th) from behind the arc. Their interior defense isn’t bad either, only allowing 46.6%(61st) of shots to drop.

They’re not particularly good at turning the ball over. Their 8.1% (272) steal percentage isn’t great. They somewhat make up with that with their 10.3% (75th) non-steal turnover percentage. Even worst for the Terps, they struggle to secure their offensive glass, giving up offensive rebounds on 29.1% of shots. If they do that against Purdue, Zach Edey will go for 30 again.

X-Factor - Depth

Maryland is as shallow as a kiddie pool. Their bench plays 26.8% of minutes, good for 285th in the nation. To put that in perspective, Purdue doesn’t use their bench a ton, and they still eat up 34% (105th) of minutes. The front court is particularly thin. Julian Reese’s primary backup is starting forward Donta Scott. Scott’s primary backup is wing Hakim Hart. They would prefer to not use freshman Caelum Swanton-Rodger but won’t have a choice today.

If Purdue gets into Maryland’s depth, it’s going to be a long day for the Terps. They did a good job of staying out of trouble against finesse big man Hunter Dickinson, with Scott and Reese picking up a combined 4 fouls. They’ll need to keep that up against Zach Edey, but the task will be significantly more challenging because Zach doesn’t fancy himself a 7 foot 3 point shooter and will take more than 6 shots inside the arc. In fact, Zach will probably have 6 shot attempts midway throughout 1st half.

Predictions

KenPom

Maryland - 62

Purdue - 72

83% Confidence

Drew

Purdue - 78

Maryland - 65

This thing will be closeish at half, but Purdue will land body blows in the 1st half. Maryland doesn’t have the depth to play with the physical Boilermakers. They struggle against physical centers. Hunter Dickinson went off on them in their first match up, putting up 32 points on 13-16 from inside the arc. In the second match-up Dickinson and Howard decided he was best deployed outside the arc, and Maryland flipped the script and knocking off the Wolverines 64-58 in their last contest.

Zach Edey won’t forget to attack Maryland where they’re most vulnerable (in the paint, guarding a 7’4” center with a bulked up forward). Edey goes off for 30+ in this game and Purdue takes over in the second half.