Jumbo Heroes (2-2):
Look, 2-2 isn’t where I want to be for my predictions or for this Purdue team. I thought both of us had a real shot at sitting at 4-0 on the season right now. But, we’ve just gotta go back, watch the tape, and learn from our mistakes. We’ve gotten better each week and this week is just another chance to improve.
Looking at the current odds on Draft Kings Purdue is currently a 12 point dog and as much as I’ve quibbled with the folks in Vegas in the past this sounds right to me. Purdue simply doesn’t win in Minnesota and Minnesota has been crushing people, but to quote Woody Paige from ESPN “LOOK AT THE SCHEDULE!” They’ve played two of the worst FBS teams as well as an FCS team. The only other game is Michigan State and I just don’t think we know enough about them to know if that’s a good win or not.
I discussed this on the latest podcast but the weak schedule and their WR1 being out are both huge helps for Purdue. The question mark is does AOC play? At this point I’m inclined to think he doesn’t and that hurts Purdue too. I think Purdue keeps it close but they are unable to completely stop Ibrahim and the Minnesota running attack.
I am 4-0 in this space so far this year, so y’all should always listen to me for betting advice. Actually, don’t. I do not want to be responsible for financial ruin. Minnesota has been really good so far. Sure, they usually have an early stumble under PJ, but haven’t had that so far. They are now my pick to win the Big Ten West, and I think it will not be close. I also think AOC doesn’t play, making this an even bigger task for Purdue. The strong Gopher defense sits on Purdue’s head and Mo Ibrahim wears us down.
Jeff Brohm has struggled mightily against PJ Fleck since they both came to the Big Ten in 2017, and I think those struggles continue. Purdue possibly not having O’Connell once again would make things even worse. I am going to assume he plays in this game, but it’s still not enough. Minnesota has looked very good this year though, giving up just 6 points per game and Mo Ibrahim dominating out of the backfield. (If O’Connell remains out, Purdue loses 38-21.)
I have no idea who is playing quarterback for Purdue on Saturday. That seems like a key piece of information (another reason why I never bet on Purdue). If O’Connell plays, Purdue has a puncher’s chance on the road. This game needs to get into the 30’s (maybe 40’s?) for Purdue to win. That’s possible with O’Connell at the helm. If it’s Burton and the run first offense, Purdue is in trouble. I don’t think the defense can hold Minnesota under 30, and I don’t think the Purdue offense under Burton (or any other QB on the roster) can get Purdue over 30. Either way. I’m not picking Purdue to win this one on the road after what we’ve seen at home this season.
With AOC - Purdue 31 - Minnesota 34
With Burton - Purdue 24 - Minnesota 34
Fleck owns CJB, I am not super optimistic as it stands, especially if AOC is exempt.
Holmes (2-1 no FAU pick received):
Look, we have to get lucky against Minnesota so time. Why not now?
I’ve lost confidence in this team’s ability to get the job done. They had me to start the season but I fell off pretty fast. It’s a shame because this could have been a special year. As it stands Purdue can’t stop the run game and without AOC the offense is just ordinary. Minnesota finds a way to slow Charlie Jones.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.