#4 Purdue(9-0, 1-0 Big10) Vs Nebraska(6-4, 0-1 Big10)

Saturday, December 10th - 2:15 PM EST

Lincoln Nebraska, Scott Frost’s Former Basement

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Purdue Roster

Nebraska Roster

Purdue Stats

Nebraska Stats

Purdue on Offense

In theory, Nebraska is a decent defensive team. They’re ranked 73rd in defensive efficiency on KenPom, and have good length at most positions. Derrick Walker poses a different sort of test for Zach Edey. Walker isn’t the tallest post at 6’9” but he’s a burley 245 and isn’t afraid to get physical. He’ll try and get into Edey’s legs and root him out of the post. If the officials bring their whistle, he won’t last long, but that’s never a given, especially on the road. The perimeter players need to continue to reverse the ball to give Edey a chance to move in the post and free himself from Walker. The straight post iso game may be tough because Walker is going to hold his position on defense and try and force Edey out of the paint on the catch.

Fred Hoiberg also has size and fouls off the bench to throw at Edey. Wilhelm Breidenbach and Blaise Keita are both in the 6’10”, 240 range and play no appreciable role on offense. They have 10 fouls apiece, and won’t hesitate to play physical. If you foul Edey 100% of the time, and the officials only call 10% of them, you’re winning.

Against Indiana, the Huskers held Trace Jackson-Davis below his scoring average, but gave up scads of points from the perimeter. The Hoosiers hit 11-25 3’s, many of the wide open variety. Purdue will need to do the same. I anticipate Nebraska doing everything in their power to try and slow down the Big Maple, daring Purdue’s young back court to beat them on the road. Fletcher Loyer has been in a bit of a shooting slump over the last 3 games, going a combined 5/15 from deep. The Boilermakers need him to hit his open shots this afternoon because he’s going to have plenty.

Smith will have to navigate Griesel’s long limbs. Braden has the speed and quickness advantage, but will need to remember that the 6’7” Griesel’s long arms are closing on him. He’s been great putting the ball high off the glass with a soft touch, and will need to do the same today. Getting to the rim could be easy, but finishing could be an adventure.

Purdue on Defense

Derrick Walker is Nebraska’s leading scorer, but I don’t think his power post game is going to work against Edey. The Husker’s best chance may going into Walker early in hopes of getting Zach in foul trouble, even if that means they eat a few blocked shots in the process. If I’m Hoiberg, I tell Walker to try and power through Edey and hope the refs punish him for being an extremely large human being.

Outside of Walker, Sam Griesel is a tough matchup for Braden Smith. I assume there will be some cross matchups between Morton and Smith. Morton makes more sense on the 6’7” Griesel than the 5’10” Smith. That means Smith ends up on 6’5” CJ Wilcher. That’s not ideal but he’s not the same threat as Griesel. Sam can beat you if you let him, Wilcher can’t.

In the Husker’s upset of then #7 Creighton, Walker(22) and Griesel(18) led the way. Forward Juwan Gary was the only other Husker in double digits(12). Gary could pose an issue today with Mason Gillis out. Caleb Furst will need to move his feet and stay in front of Gary, otherwise you may see some strange lineups on the floor. Purdue doesn’t have a great answer for an aggressive under sized 4 without Gillis. Nebraska is 40th in the nation in 2 point percentage at 55%. If they come close to that today, it’s because Gary was able to drive in the paint and finish against Purdue’s bigger, but slower 4’s.

X Factor - Sam Griesel

Griesel missed the Indiana game with an illness, and the Hoosiers ran Nebraska out of the gym. He’s listed as a game time decision. I included him in this preview because without him, this is pointless, the Huskers don’t stand a chance.

If Griesel is close to 100%, this could be a tricky game for the Boilermakers. If he’s not, I don’t see a way forward for Hoiberg’s crew.

Prediction

Drew (with Griesel)

Purdue - 70

Nebraska - 63

Drew (without Griesel)

Purdue - 77

Nebraska - 59

I think Purdue wins either way, but Nebraska could make things uncomfortable with Griesel. If he can’t go, Nebraska can’t go and this thing is over midway through the 2nd half.

KenPom

Purdue - 72

Nebraska - 64

75% Confidence