clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2021 Music City Bowl: Purdue vs. Tennessee Opening Odds

The line is already shifting fast!

NCAA Football: Indiana at Purdue Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

As announced yesterday evening, Purdue will be traveling down to Nashville to play Tennessee in the Music City Bowl late this month. This will be the second time in four years that Purdue will play in this bowl game after playing Auburn in 2018. That’s about as far as we will go about that experience.

On par with what we have done in the latter half of the season, we will be taking a deeper dive into the betting aspects of the Boilermakers bowl game this year.

When the betting lines opened yesterday, Purdue was a 2.5 point favorite. The line has already shifted nearly 6 points to now favor the Volunteers by 3 points at the moment. The over/under is also listed at 61 points.

Purdue capped their regular season with a dominant 44-7 win over Indiana last weekend to finish at 8-4, which is their best record since 2007. Looking back on the schedule, Purdue has a fantastic resume for an 8 win squad with their only losses coming to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. When your worst loss is to a couple of fellow 8-4 teams that were close to making the Big Ten Championship Game, you’ve had one hell of a year.

The Boilermakers had a couple of big-time wins over Top 3 teams in Iowa and Michigan State when the schools faced off. Outside of those monumental upsets, the Boilermakers did not have many great wins. The most notable was against Oregon State who finished 7-5 in the season opener, but they largely feasted on Big Ten teams amid down years.

Tennessee on the flip side had a fairly up and down season in 2021. The Volunteers finished the regular season with a blowout win of their own against in-state rival Vanderbilt, which set their record at 7-5 before bowl season. Their biggest win of the year came in early November when they knocked off then 18th ranked Kentucky in a 45-42 shootout. They also had wins over 6-6 teams, South Carolina and Missouri who both struggled when they got to conference play.

Purdue falls somewhere in between those teams and the squads Tennessee lost to, which were Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, and Pitt. Everyone that the Volunteers fell against besides Florida will be playing in a New Year’s 6 bowls or the College Football Playoff.

Both Purdue and Tennessee have the potential for a high-octane offensive performance every time they step on the field. The Volunteers averaged over 38 points per game throughout the regular season, with much of their offense coming via the running game. They averaged 212 yards per game on the ground and 247 through the air. Purdue was flipped in terms of their balance as they threw for 340 yards per game and rushed for only 83.5 a contest. This led to them scoring an average of 27.5 points, but they found their groove later on in the season after inserting Aidan O’Connell in at quarterback over Jack Plummer.

The defense of Purdue was vastly improved from a season ago and was able to hold opponents to 20.5 points per game, but did hold every team under 30 points apart from the blowout loss against Ohio State which saw them allow 59 points. Of course, Purdue also had a shutout win against UConn that helped offset this. Tennessee’s defense was a little less consistent though, as they gave up 27.5 points per game. A total of 6 teams dropped 30 or more on the Volunteers including three in which teams scored more than 40.

Each team was also flipped in terms of their betting analytics on the season. Purdue was 7-5 against the spread this year, while Tennessee was 5-7. Purdue’s games also hit the over mark in just 4 of 12 contests, and Tennessee’s games hit the over big time during 9 of their 12 games.

In the coming days, we will learn more about who will be playing in the game and things of that nature with several players likely heading for the NFL on both sides. I would anticipate that the line will continue to move in favor of Tennessee, especially if David Bell and George Karlaftis decide not to play. For now, this is a wait-and-see situation with many variables still undecided.

Until then, you can place bets and check out odds for the 2021 Music City Bowl using DraftKings Sportsbook!