Purdue had one major goal within the last two weeks: get at least a share of the first Big Ten volleyball title since the 1980s. They were only one game behind Wisconsin, a team that the Boilermakers had swept this season for the first time since 2008, in the standings, and the Badgers had some tough matches coming up. If Purdue could win out, which would include a victory over Nebraska in the season finale, all they would need would be one Badger loss to achieve this goal. Unfortunately, Wisconsin did not lose. It wouldn’t have mattered, since Purdue was unable to score a key victory versus Nebraska, but the missed opportunity still stings a little bit. Even though the team fell short of a Big Ten title, it was still a strong enough season that they earned the right to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Before I go into a tournament preview, let’s look back at the last two weeks of regular season play.

11/19: FINAL—#6 Purdue 3, Michigan 1

Key Leaders:

Hayley Bush: 37 assists, 1 service ace, 11 digs

Jael Johnson: 7 kills, .500 hitting percentage, 2 solo blocks, 4 assisted blocks, 6 digs

Jena Otec: 2 service aces, 33 digs

Grace Cleveland: 12 kills, .273 hitting percentage, 1 solo block, 5 assisted blocks

Michigan hasn’t been anywhere near contention in the Big Ten title race, but they were still fighting for an NCAA spot, and a win here would have been critical in assuring themselves of a spot. Purdue also had some stakes for this matchup, and they took care of business at home. In the first set, Purdue jumped out to an early lead and never looked back. The second set was much tighter, with the teams trading blows throughout much of the set. However, after a May Petrofsky kill cut Purdue’s lead to 19-17, the Boilermakers grabbed six of the last seven points to win the set, aided by a couple of service aces from Caitlyn Newton. Michigan’s coach must have said something in the set break, because after a close start to the set, Michigan gradually pulled away to win the third set. There was no backbreaking run, just a bunch of two-point and three-point runs to which Purdue didn’t successfully respond. Purdue responded quickly in the fourth set, taking early leads of 6-2, 13-6, and 18-10 and hanging on from there.

11/21: FINAL—#8 Purdue 3, Northwestern 1

Key Leaders:

Hayley Bush: 1.000 hitting percentage, 43 assists, 3 block assists, 12 digs

Caitlyn Newton: 21 kills, .364 hitting percentage, 3 service aces, 5 digs

Jael Johnson: 9 kills, .471 hitting percentage, 6 assisted blocks

I was hoping for a sweep in this matchup, but Purdue took care of the win, and that is enough in the end. The match started as a back-and-forth battle, with both sides splitting the first eighteen point. However, Purdue pulled off a five-point run to take a 14-9 lead. Even though Northwestern would take the next three points, Purdue was in charge for the rest of the set. Again, the second set started out tight, but the Boilermakers responded with another five-point run, and Purdue throttled the Wildcats for the remainder of that set. The third set continued the trend of a close start, with runs in the second half. However, this time it was Northwestern who pulled off a four-point run to take a 16-14 lead. Purdue responded with two points of their own to tie the set again, and they won four of the next seven points to take a 20-19 lead. The Wildcats responded with another four-point run to put themselves within two points of winning the set. However, after all that, I still thought the Boilermakers were going to finish the sweep after three Northwestern attack errors and a Caitlyn Newton kill brought the score to 24-23 in Purdue’s favor. The Wildcats would tie the set with a Hanna Lesiak kill, but Jael Johnson notched a kill on the next point to nudge Purdue one point away from finishing the match. Unfortunately, Purdue could not finish the job, as another kill from Lesiak and two more from Temi Thomas-Ailara clinched the set for Northwestern. For a while, the Wildcats were able to maintain this momentum in the fourth set, with leads of 11-6 after seventeen points and 13-7 after twenty points. Purdue decided not to let this match get too close and took five of the next six points to push the set within two. After Northwestern won the next two points, Purdue pulled off a five-point run to take the lead, and a six-point run shortly afterward made sure they would not relinquish it.

11/26: FINAL—#6 Purdue 3, Indiana 1

Key Leaders:

Hayley Bush: .400 hitting percentage, 45 assists, 3 block assists, 10 digs

Caitlyn Newton: 17 kills, 4 block assists, 10 digs

Grace Cleveland: 18 kills, .563 hitting percentage, 5 block assists, 7 digs

I am a bit disappointed that Purdue couldn’t earn the sweep here, but at least they won for the nineteenth consecutive time against the Hoosiers. As Senior Day festivities were held before this match, it was only fitting that the seniors led the effort. Purdue started the match by grabbing the first four points, but Indiana fought back to tie the set at seven. At that point, Purdue went on a four-point run and never looked back. Purdue was making a lot of attack errors early in the second set, and while they fought back to make the set interesting, they were ultimately unable to fully claw back. After an attack error from Caitlyn Newton put the first point in Indiana’s hands, Purdue won the next four points and did not trail again for the rest of the set. Two five-point runs by the Boilermakers turned the third set into a rout. Purdue had a strong start in the fourth set, but a four-point Indiana run gave them a 6-5 lead after eleven points. Purdue would win four of the next five points to retake the lead, and the set became a back-and-forth battle for a while. Ultimately, a stretch where Purdue earned six of seven points proved decisive, and Purdue clinched the win, which would clinch the most Big Ten wins in a season since 2011. It also tied the Governor’s Cup standings at two points each.

11/27: FINAL—#11 Nebraska 3, #6 Purdue 1

Key Leaders:

Hayley Bush: .286 hitting percentage, 31 assists, 1 solo block, 4 assisted blocks

Raven Colvin: 7 kills, .375 hitting percentage, 7 assisted blocks

Grace Cleveland: 9 kills, 3 assisted blocks, 7 digs

Maybe it was because Purdue was out of the Big Ten race that they had been striving for, but whatever the case may be, Purdue was unable to finish the season strong. Considering that Purdue came into this match on a nine-match win streak, I thought that this should be a solid opportunity for another strong win, but it was not meant to be. Purdue was able to take four of the first nine points in the first set, but the Cornhuskers took the next three points and controlled the set from there. The Boilermakers were never completely out of the match, but they could never retake the lead. The second set was just completely ugly: while a Caitlyn Newton kill gave Purdue an early 2-1 lead, Nebraska responded by winning nine of the next ten points and never looked back. An eight-point run by Nebraska to finish the set just added insult to injury. The Boilermakers were able to use the break to recover, and the third set was much more competitive. An attack error by Caitlyn Newton gave Nebraska a 9-8 lead, but Purdue responded with a five-point run to retake the lead. Nebraska chipped away at the lead for a while and was able to cut it to one point, but at that point the Boilermakers rolled off another five-point run to push the lead to six. Again, Nebraska chipped at the lead and was able to push it to one point again after a bad set made it 23-22 Purdue, but a Nebraska attack error and a Caitlyn Newton kill locked down the third set for the Boilermakers. The fourth set started out close, but after a Grace Cleveland kill made the score 8-6 in favor of Nebraska, the Cornhuskers scored seven of the next eight points to take a dominant lead, and they held the Boilermakers at an arm’s length for the rest of the set. It is disappointing that Purdue’s momentum seemed to dissipate entirely in the last match, but hopefully the team has time to practice the key points that will help them perform well in the NCAA Tournament.

Now that we have talked about the last two weeks, let’s talk about the four teams that will travel to West Lafayette:

Purdue

Record: 23-6 Overall, 15-5 Big Ten

Common Opponent Results: Illinois (2-3), @Illinois (3-2), Wisconsin (3-1), @Wisconsin (3-1), Michigan (3-1)

There have been some bumps along the way, but this season has gone mostly as expected for the Boilermakers. I wish that they had taken at least one set from Louisville, but there have been plenty of teams that haven’t been able to accomplish that. There were exceptional wins over Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio State, and also baffling losses to Illinois and Michigan State. Overall, it is probably close to the level most fans were hoping for, so now comes the true test. Can Purdue make an elusive Final Four appearance? This would be a very good time to accomplish this feat.

Illinois State

Record: 19-13 Overall, 13-5 Missouri Valley RPI: 67th

Common Opponent Results: Illinois (0-3)

Purdue’s first round opponent made it to the NCAA Tournament on the strength of a push through the Missouri Valley Tournament that they hosted, highlighted by a five-set upset over #1 seed Loyola (IL) in the final. For the most part, they played pretty well in conference play, but they did not have a strong nonconference season. Their best win this season was either Wright State on the road or Valparaiso on the road, and neither team even made their conference tournament final. The one thing that might concern me is that this team will come in with some momentum after a gritty win in the conference final. However, Purdue should be taking care of business here, as is expected when a ranked team faces an unranked team at home in the first round.

Dayton

Record: 25-5 Overall, 16-0 Atlantic 10 RPI: 40th

Common Opponent Results: @Wisconsin (0-3), @Wisconsin (0-3), @Michigan (0-3)

Dayton challenged themselves out of conference, and then rolled off sixteen straight conference wins, a nonconference win wedged in the middle, and relatively easy victories in the semifinals and finals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament to earn the team’s sixteenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament and fourth in a row. Dayton’s success in Atlantic 10 play was impressive: they lost a mere eight sets in eighteen conference matches. However, they did not win a single set against Big Ten opponents, so that plays in Purdue’s favor. The Flyers would have to get past Marquette to face the Boilermakers, but if they did, Purdue would be more battle hardened and playing at home, so while it would be a challenge, Purdue would be favored.

Marquette

Record: 26-5 Overall, 16-2 Big East RPI: 16th

Common Opponent Results: Wisconsin (0-3)

Marquette would be a fairly familiar face for the Boilermakers, since these two teams squared off in the second round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament, also in West Lafayette. Purdue won that match in four sets to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Like 2019, Marquette was a good team, but just not quite good enough to earn a hosting spot. This team took care of their business, as all of their losses came against teams hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. However, they don’t have any great wins, and the Big East is certainly not as deep as the Big Ten, so they also have less experience against elite teams. Unlike Purdue, Marquette has lost a few of their key performers from the last matchup, but they seem to have been replaced without issue. This could be a tough matchup, but I still like the Boilermakers’ chances due to home court advantage and Marquette’s struggles against elite teams.

For the first round, Illinois State will probably prove somewhat feisty, but Purdue should still win this match. The second round will prove a bit more daunting, and Purdue may lose a set or two. However, my prediction is that the combined force of an experienced team and a frenzied home court advantage will be enough to push Purdue to victory.