Hammer and Rails is back to give you guys a guide on the betting implications for Purdue’s upcoming tilt against Northwestern next Saturday from Wrigley Field!
Purdue is coming off an embarrassing 28 points loss to Ohio State last Saturday in Columbus. On the betting side of things, Purdue did not have a good afternoon in that area on Saturday either. Purdue failed to cover the large spread of 21 points and obviously did not win the contest. The game did hit the over quite early though, which was my prediction last week.
This column’s record since we began is 7-5 for all of the betting predictions. (2-2 in ML, 2-2 in the spread, and 3-1 for over/under.)
This Saturday, Purdue dropped to 6-4 overall, 5-5 against the spread, and hit the over for the third time all season. Oddsmakers have been fairly correct with the Boilermakers and how they relate to their opponents so far this season.
Now, this week Purdue has opened as an 11.5 point favorite against Northwestern with the over/under being set at 48.5. This is a very favorable line for the Boilermakers and the trajectory they had been on before the loss to Ohio State.
In recent memory, Northwestern has gotten the better of Purdue with Jeff Brohm having an underwhelming record of 1-3 against Pat Fitzgerald. Although, the last three games have been decided by just one score.
Something to consider, in those matchups it was clear who the better team was coming into the game. In the years Northwestern won, they finished the season 10-3, 9-5, and 7-2. During those same seasons, Purdue had records of 7-6, 6-7, and 2-4. This year Purdue heads into this matchup at 6-4, while Northwestern is just 3-7.
The Wildcats have fallen on tough times this year since they began the season at a modest 3-3. They have gone on to lose each of their last four and have only put up just 10 points per game over that stretch.
Another thing to consider is each team’s record against common opponents. Purdue and Northwestern have both played Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Wildcats have lost all of those games by an average of 23.2 points per game.
This should* be a game in which Purdue asserts their dominance and blows Northwestern out, but as we all know that’s not how things play out in college football.
However, I would be jumping all over these odds if I’m rolling with the Boilermakers. At 11.5, I would like to see the spread drop a little to maybe 10 or so before I placed a bet on that, but I think this game will clear the 48.5 with Purdue’s offense looking phenomenal the last few weeks.
I will save my final predictions until the Hammer and Rails staff prediction post on Friday at noon. Until then you can place bets and check out more odds on DraftKings Sportsbook!