Where: Hartford, Connecticut
When: Thursday, March 21, 2019
Old Dominion Monarchs
Current Record: 26-8
Conference USA Record: 13-5
Current Form: Conference USA Tournament Champions
Head Coach: Jeff Jones
Projected Starting Lineup
PG - #4 - Ahmad Caver - 6’2, 175 - Sr - 16.5 PPG, 5.6 AST, 4.3 REB
SG - #10 - Xavier Green - 6’6, 200 - So - 9.7 PPG, 3.7 REB, 41 3PT%
SF - #3 - B.J. Stith - 6-5, 205 - Sr - 16.9 PPG, 7.4 REB, 37 3PT%
PF - #13 - Aaron Carver - 6’7, 225 - Jr - 2.4 PPG, 6 REB
C - #25 - Elbert Robinson - 7’1, 285 - Sr - 2.9 PPG, 2.1 REB
F/C - #22 - Kalu Ezikpe - 6’7, 245 - Fr - 10.6 Min Per Game, 4 PPG, 2.9 REB
G/F - #1 - Jason Wade - 6’5, 205 - Fr - 19 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 3.6 REB
F/C - #23 - Dajour Dickens - 7’0, 215 - So - 16.8 MPG, 3.3 PPG, 1.7 BLK
PG/SG - #2 - Justice Kithcart - 6’1, 185 - So - 14.6 MPG, 5.6 PPG, 41.2 3PT%
Advanced Statistics Comparison
ODU - 112
Purdue - 10
ODU - 64.3 (325 Nationally)
Purdue - 65.6 (276)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
ODU - 101.9 (217)
Purdue - 121.5 (5)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
ODU - 96.4 (48)
Purdue - 95 (32)
Offensive Turnover Percentage
ODU - 17.9 (135)
Purdue - 15.9 (26)
Defensive Turnover Percentage
ODU - 18.6 (45.6)
Purdue - 19.5 (110)
Effective Field Goal Percentage - Offense
ODU - 47.7 (302)
Purdue - 52.7 (87)
Effective Field Goal Percentage - Defense
ODU - 45.6 (14)
Purdue - 49.5 (118)
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
ODU - 32.3 (54)
Purdue - 35 (17)
Defensive Rebounding Percentage
ODU - 24.8 (37)
Purdue - 26.6 (102)
Offensive 3 Point Percentage
ODU - 35.3 (119)
Purdue - 36.4 (77)
Defensive 3 Point Percentage
ODU - 32.5 (70)
Purdue - 34.4 (177)
Offensive 2 Point Percentage
ODU - 44.5 (340)
Purdue - 51.2 (125)
Defensive 2 Point Percentage
ODU - 43.5 (7)
Purdue - 47.9 (79)
Free Throw Percentage
ODU - 66 (324)
Purdue - 73.2 (93)
Block Percentage Offense
ODU - 6.8 (18)
Purdue - 11.4 (310)
Block Percentage Defense
ODU - 14.1 (17)
Purdue - 13 (28)
Steal Percentage Offense
ODU - 7.4 (29)
Purdue - 7.2 (22)
Steal Percentage Defense
ODU - 8.5 (206)
Purdue - 9.7 (89)
Basic Set: 3 Out 2 In
There is nothing pretty or sophisticated about the ODU offense. They want to hold the ball, run the clock, and then let one of their guards drive the ball. Their big guys set screens and crash the offensive glass. It reminds my of a Michigan State offense without a post option.
ODU is all about controlling tempo, even if it means their offense looks like trash. On this play they keep popping guards out off down screens until the shot clock dictates it’s time for someone to do something, a guard drives the ball and then they crash the boards.
When they pick the tempo up, they run their hot player off screens (in this case this is Green’s 9th straight points), let him drive, and then crash the boards in case he misses. Not pretty, but effective enough to win. That’s the motto of the ODU offense.
Do you enjoy free flowing offense? Do you enjoy teams playing in transition? Sorry, you’re in for a long game. ODU comes to each game with a sack of rocks, fully ready to fight it out. I watched a Western Kentucky team that thrives in transition get slowed down to a walk. They committed 4 shot clock violations in the first half.
This is the second half of a possession, and you can see ODU’s stifling defense. They contain and recover off the pick and roll. Play hard on ball defense, and do a decent job of sticking to players on off ball screens. Granted, this is bad offense by WKU, but it gives you a feel for what ODU is all about.
How Purdue Can Win
It’s all about making shots against ODU. They are big, strong, and well coached defensively. Pushing the ball in transition will also be a key for Purdue. If you don’ have to face ODU’s set defense on a possession, you’ve already won.
Purdue should be able to spread this defense out, move the ball, and find ODU over rotating. I like the Haarms pick and roll against the ODU defense, because if you help and then try and recover to Haarms, he’s already dunking the ball.
Stith is their best player, and I expect Nojel to draw that assignment early, but Green may be their hottest player coming into the tournament. Cline draws him early but may need some help from our back line on dribble drives. I could also see Nojel switching to Green if he gets going.
Ahmad Carver vs Carsen seems like the obvious match up at the point. Carver wants to drive the ball and dish. Keep him from driving and you him from dishing.
The front line for ODU scores almost exclusively on offensive rebounds and dump off dunks. The Purdue big men should give them plenty of room and help on drives. This isn’t a game where the other teams center can pull Haarms out of the paint, or cause Williams to foul on a drive.
How Purdue Can Lose
Carsen forces early shots, ODU cleans the glass, runs clock on offense and forces in some shots. ODU is one of those teams that punish you for bad shots by not giving you the ball back.
If you jack a bad shot early in the clock, you’re going to have to wait another 40 seconds to get another shot. If you jack another quick, bad shot, they will do the same. Rinse and Repeat.
If Purdue doesn’t run their offense, they will find themselves in an extended game of keep away.
Purdue has to control the glass. Grady in particular has struggled against physical front lines, and ODU is about as physical as you can get. They have a revolving cast of big guys who have two main skills; they are big and they crash the glass.
The other concern would be Stith or Green getting hot. I don’t like Cline on either of those guys. ODU struggles to score unless someone puts up an great individual effort.
KenPom: Purdue 72 - ODU 59 (88% certainty)
Drew: Purdue 68 - ODU 55
Purdue should have too much fire power for ODU. They are a good defensive team, but I think Purdue can find open shots on kick outs and over rotations.
Carsen putting up a clunker filled with bad early shots and Purdue getting killed on the offensive glass makes my stomach a little uneasy, but I think the Boilermakers pull away in the second half and cruise.