FanPost

3-seed or 4-seed?

Some fans act as if we've lost our 3-seed, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we're out of it. We might. But it is definitely not clear cut done deal. Fans and media give waaaaaaay too much attention to conference tourney. You have to realize that on the team sheet, a neutral court loss doesn't really change the equation much. It's only if a team gets hot and wins 3 (or 4) games in a row on a neutral court (likely all Q1 wins), that will likely bump their seed line. But just b/c a team lose in the first game doesn't necessarily mean much, as long as it isn't a "bad" loss (i.e. to a team outside NET Top 100). And the "bracketologists" tend to give too much weight to recent games, even though the Committee has always mainted that the game in early Mar is still counted the same as the game in late Nov.

Before automatically assume we suck and lose our 3-seed, let's take a look at our resume since Feb 9:

  • Purdue (7-3, NET: 11 -> 12)

Then, let's take a look at the teams right behind us. Remember, we are the top 3-seed, so you'll need 4 teams to jump ahead of us to move us to 4. Let's look at each of them since Feb 9 (the games include games played today thus far on 3/16, but NET is as of 3/15)

  • Kansas (8-2, NET: 18 -> 19, still playing)
  • Houston (8-1, NET: 7 -> 4, still playing)
  • Marquette (5-5, NET: 21 -> 28)
  • Iowa State (4-6, NET: 13 -> 22, still playing, and let's cheer for them over Kansas)
  • Nevada (7-3, NET: 15 -> 23)
  • Louisville (3-7, NET 14 -> 21)
  • Wisconsin (6-4, NET: 12 -> 17)

Looking here, Houston MIGHT have jumped us, but all the other teams also have a drop in NET. Kansas is the iffy case b/c they are RIGHT BEHIND us in the Reveal, they could win the B12-T, but their NET is still 7 spots behind us.

Now, there are another 4 teams that the Committee mentioned, so we can assume those are the 5-seeds (and in no particular order):

  • Villanova (5-5, NET: 19 -> 26, still playing)
  • Virginia Tech (6-4, NET: 10 -> 11)
  • Texas Tech (8-1, NET: 16 -> 10)
  • LSU (8-2, NET: 17 -> 14)

Looking here, Nova and VaTech also dropped in NET, so they couldn't possibly make up the ground to jump us. Then it's down to TT and LSU, and both of them have a jump in their NET, and they went a combined 16-3. So the question is, do they jump enough to overtake us at the 3-seed line?

Personally, I think TT is a maybe, and LSU is a no, esp. given that they have a coaching change, which I am not sure if the Committee will take that into consideration (they should, since they also take injured player into consideration, and I'd argue that losing a coach is like losing a rotational player).

The bottom line is, we have {Purdue, Kansas, Houston, TT, LSU} fighting for the four 3-seeds. PURDUE WAS IN THE LEAD and only drop one spot in NET ranking. Even if we assume Houston has jumped us, it is far from conclusive that {Kansas, TT, LSU} have all jumped too. Here are the arguments why they shouldn't:

  • Kansas - Also dropped a rank in NET, and still 7 spots behind us in NET
  • LSU - Still 2 spots behind us in NET, plus they weren't in the Top 16, and there's a coaching change
  • TT - Have they made up enough ground to jump us since they weren't even originally in Top 16?
Even if we assume each of those 3 teams have a 60% chance of jumping us, you'd need ALL 3 of them jumping us to bump us down to 4. Assuming independence, that is only a 21.6% chance of happening (the extra decimal is my futile attempt to make it look very scientific).

So if we end up with a 3-seed, don't act surprised. You've been told by your truly here.

So who should you root for/against? Definitely root for Iowa State to beat Kansas, b/c they are a huge threat. Definitely root for Houston to lose, b/c they are also a threat.

At the end of the day, a 4-seed is not necessarily THAT different in this year's tourney. In general, 3 is much better than 4 b/c you can avoid the 1-seed the longest, and 2-seeds are a lot more vulnerable than 1-seed in terms of getting upset in the first weekend. But the issue this year is that the 1-seeds are not THAT different from the 2-seeds. UVA is a 1-seed lock, and Michigan is a 2-seed lock. But in between are {Duke, Zaga, Tenn, UK, UNC, MSU} where half will be a 1-seed and half will be a 2-seed. Whether we are a 3- or 4-, we still have to play one of them to get to E8 (well, except MSU, since we're from the same conference). The 3- would be better though b/c we'll likely be playing the 6-seed, but then with the typical 5-12 upset, maybe a 4- isn't so bad to play an overachieved 12-seed.

So if we end up with a 4-seed, no need to act like we "blew it." In this particular year, it may not be that much of a difference, unless Duke is the 1-seed in our region, and their team is healthy.

Lastly, the real thing we need to worry should be Carsen's injured back. If he can play healthy, I think we have a chance against any team ahead of us. If he isn't, we might be vulnerable even in our 1st-rd game. At the end of the day, 3- or 4- may not make a difference, one way or another.

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