Some fans act as if we've lost our 3-seed, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that we're out of it. We might. But it is definitely not clear cut done deal. Fans and media give waaaaaaay too much attention to conference tourney. You have to realize that on the team sheet, a neutral court loss doesn't really change the equation much. It's only if a team gets hot and wins 3 (or 4) games in a row on a neutral court (likely all Q1 wins), that will likely bump their seed line. But just b/c a team lose in the first game doesn't necessarily mean much, as long as it isn't a "bad" loss (i.e. to a team outside NET Top 100). And the "bracketologists" tend to give too much weight to recent games, even though the Committee has always mainted that the game in early Mar is still counted the same as the game in late Nov.
Before automatically assume we suck and lose our 3-seed, let's take a look at our resume since Feb 9:
- Purdue (7-3, NET: 11 -> 12)
Then, let's take a look at the teams right behind us. Remember, we are the top 3-seed, so you'll need 4 teams to jump ahead of us to move us to 4. Let's look at each of them since Feb 9 (the games include games played today thus far on 3/16, but NET is as of 3/15)
- Kansas (8-2, NET: 18 -> 19, still playing)
- Houston (8-1, NET: 7 -> 4, still playing)
- Marquette (5-5, NET: 21 -> 28)
- Iowa State (4-6, NET: 13 -> 22, still playing, and let's cheer for them over Kansas)
- Nevada (7-3, NET: 15 -> 23)
- Louisville (3-7, NET 14 -> 21)
- Wisconsin (6-4, NET: 12 -> 17)
Looking here, Houston MIGHT have jumped us, but all the other teams also have a drop in NET. Kansas is the iffy case b/c they are RIGHT BEHIND us in the Reveal, they could win the B12-T, but their NET is still 7 spots behind us.
Now, there are another 4 teams that the Committee mentioned, so we can assume those are the 5-seeds (and in no particular order):
- Villanova (5-5, NET: 19 -> 26, still playing)
- Virginia Tech (6-4, NET: 10 -> 11)
- Texas Tech (8-1, NET: 16 -> 10)
- LSU (8-2, NET: 17 -> 14)
Looking here, Nova and VaTech also dropped in NET, so they couldn't possibly make up the ground to jump us. Then it's down to TT and LSU, and both of them have a jump in their NET, and they went a combined 16-3. So the question is, do they jump enough to overtake us at the 3-seed line?
Personally, I think TT is a maybe, and LSU is a no, esp. given that they have a coaching change, which I am not sure if the Committee will take that into consideration (they should, since they also take injured player into consideration, and I'd argue that losing a coach is like losing a rotational player).
The bottom line is, we have {Purdue, Kansas, Houston, TT, LSU} fighting for the four 3-seeds. PURDUE WAS IN THE LEAD and only drop one spot in NET ranking. Even if we assume Houston has jumped us, it is far from conclusive that {Kansas, TT, LSU} have all jumped too. Here are the arguments why they shouldn't:
- Kansas - Also dropped a rank in NET, and still 7 spots behind us in NET
- LSU - Still 2 spots behind us in NET, plus they weren't in the Top 16, and there's a coaching change
- TT - Have they made up enough ground to jump us since they weren't even originally in Top 16?
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