Where: Mackey Arena (The Premier Basketball Venue in the Big10)
When: Thursday, January 3rd, 7 P.M. (EST)
TV: Big10 Network
Current Record: 11-2
Big10 Record: 0-2
Previous Game: 72 - 67 win over Bryant
Head Coach: Fran McCaffery
Projected Starting Lineup
F - #25 - Tyler Cook - 6’9, 250 - Jr - 16.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.1 APG
F - #51 - Nicholas Baer - 6’7, 218 - Sr - 7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.4 BPG
G - #10 - Joe Wieskamp - 6’6, 205 -Fr -11.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3pt 43%
SG - #4 - Isaiah Moss - 6’5, 208 - Jr - 8.5 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.6 APG
PG - #3 - Jordan Bohannon - 6’1, 185 - Jr -10.5 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.6 APG
PG / G - #30 - Connor McCaffery -6’5, 205 - Fr - 20.6 MinPG, 7.1 PPG, 3.3 APG
G/F - #1 - Maishe Dailey - 6’7, 200 - Jr - 15.6 MinPG, 3.8 PPG, 1.5 RPG
C - #55 Luka Garza - 6-11, 245 - So - 22.5 MinPg, 12.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG,
Advanced Statistics Comparison
Iowa - 42
Purdue - 19
Iowa - 70.5 (134)
Purdue - 67.7 (263)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
Iowa - 113.6 (20)
Purdue - 116.3 (9)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
Iowa - 99.5 (101)
Purdue - 96.9 (67)
Free Throws Attempted / Field Goals Attempted
Iowa - 53.2 (1st)
Purdue - 26.2 (312)
Offensive 3 Point Percentage
Iowa - 35.5 (117)
Purdue - 37.2 (56)
Iowa - 5.1 (6th)
Purdue - 8.5 (129)
Basic Set - 2 in 3 out
Tyler Cook Post
Iowa will look to get Tyler Cook involved in as many ways possible. This is about as simple as it get with a straight post from a wing entry. Cook has a variety of moves on the low blocks, but this is too easy, as Cook turns into the lane and shoots a left handed hook over his right shoulder.
Purdue will play Cook straight up unless he gets hot. Matt Haarms and Evan Boudreaux have to do their work early and keep Cook out of the lane. Cook has a variety of counter moves and will set up a defender on one possession to get him off the floor with a fake on the next possession. Haarms in particular must stay down on the floor and not hunt blocks against Cook, or he’ll end up in quick foul trouble.
Jordan Bohannon in Transition
Iowa isn’t a prolific 3 point shooting team, but they will look to spot up shooters in transition. On this possession, Bohannon trails the play and is wide open in the secondary break.
Purdue will need to pay attention in transition and identify shooters like Bohannon, Moss and Wieskamp early and run them off the 3 point line. The Boilermakers have a bad habit of losing players in the secondary break and giving up transition 3s.
Tyler Cook Offensive Glass
Cook’s ability to get to the offensive glass worries me. On this possession, Iowa State rotates to cut off the baseline and no one puts a body on Cook, giving him an easy dunk.
Matt Haarms has a bad habit of chasing weak side blocks and allowing his man offensive rebounding opportunities. Purdue has to be sound in their rotations and rotate down and put a body on Cook when Haarms goes for the weak side block. Cook is a savvy player and knows how to punish you when left alone.
More Transition 3’s
This is another example of Iowa hitting transition 3s in their secondary break. Connor McCaffery threatens his defender with the dribble and then executes a simple dribble hand off to the trailing Moss for an open 3.
In the Iowa State game, Moss in particular caused the Cyclones problems. He’s a streaky shooter, and when he gets hot, he gets really hot. This shot put him at 4/4 from deep against Iowa State. As I mentioned above, Purdue must identify shooters on the secondary break, because Iowa will fire from deep early if the opportunity presents its self.
The Boilermakers want to force Iowa to execute in the half court instead of getting quality shots in transition. This has proven to be an issue for Purdue against stronger opponents this season.
1-2-2 zone (full and half court)
I think we’ll see quite a bit of 1-2-2 zone out of Iowa until Purdue either shoots them out of it from the wings, or manages to move the ball well enough to open up easy baskets. Purdue hasn’t been great with ball movement this year.
We’re all familiar with man-to-man defense, so I though looking at Iowa’s zone may be of some interest.
There is a lot going in this clip, so let’s break it down a little further, looking at the defensive rotation on each pass.
Ball at top of the key
The top man in the zone (blue) is outside, matching up with the man at the top of the key.
The wing defenders (green) step out to the wings, to either assist the top man with dribble penetration or close out on the wing entry.
The two baseline defenders (purple) are loosely guarding the two Iowa State players working inside the 3 point arch and looking to help on any drives.
In this still you can see the basic set for the 1-2-1. You’ve got the PG pressuring the ball up top, two wing defenders showing on wing shooters, and two baseline defenders.
The top man in the zone (blue), looks to trap the wing entry.
The ball side wing defender (green) step out to close down any 3 point shot from the Iowa State wing.
The weak side wing defender (green) pinches in to prevent an open shot from the player at the top of the key, if the top man (blue) has enough time to come with the hard trap on the wing with the ball.
The weak side baseline defender (purple) should rotate to the man in the middle of the zone, but he misses his rotation.
The ball side baseline defender (purple) should rotate out to the baseline runner, but is paying attention to the man in the middle of the zone.
Iowa State has a man wide open on the baseline but miss him.
Iowa State next moves the ball to the baseline.
The top man (blue) collapses in, but is looking to close out on anything that comes back up top.
The ball side wing defender (green) takes away the wing pass. He will eventually move down to trap the baseline.
The weak side wing defender (green) collapses down as well, but is ready to close out to the back side shooter in case of the skip pass.
The ball side baseline defender (purple) jumps out on the baseline pass.
The weak side baseline defender (purple) is late in his rotation, which could potentially allow an easy Iowa State entry pass and finish, but the ball pressure by the ball side defender and the subsequent trap by the wing prevents the clean entry.
Corner Trap and Rotation
The top man (blue) is still hanging out, looking to jump any potential pass back to the point.
The ball side wing (green) is trapping down on the baseline, but allowing himself a chance to recover to the wing shooter when the ball moves.
The weak side wing (green) is pinching into the lane to potentially contest the post entry pass, while still looking to close on the back side wing shooter.
The ball side baseline defender (purple) is still on the ball
The back side baseline defender (purple) has a foot in the paint, and is looking to rotate down to cut off the lane, or rotate out if the ball is reversed.
He’s still not in great position, and the post entry is available, but the Iowa State player can’t see it because of the ball pressure.
Back to the wing
Iowa State moves the ball back to the wing and the Iowa defense resets.
The top man (blue) moves back to the top of the zone to contest the top of the key.
The ball side wing defender (green) pressures the ball.
The weak side wing defender (green) pinches in, but is looking to recover to the back side shooter.
The ball side baseline defender (purple) remains outside on the baseline shooter.
The weak side baseline defender (purple) should rotate up to middle of the zone, but is late. Iowa State still refuses to throw the ball to the open player in the middle of the zone.
Back to the top
Iowa State moves the ball from the wing, back to the top of the key, and once again you see the 1-2-2 shell clearly.
The top defender (blue) pressures the ball at the top of the key.
The wing defenders (green) look to rotate out to the wing shooters.
The baseline defender (purple) both pinch into the lane.
There is still a man wide open in the middle of the zone, and Iowa State is about to try the entry pass.
Iowa State finally find the open man in the middle of the zone, but the ball pressure up top makes the Iowa State point man lob the ball into the middle, giving the defense time to rotate.
The top defender (blue) remains outside, preventing the kick out to the top of the key shooter.
The wing defenders (green) remain outside on the wings to prevent the horizontal wing pass to open shooters.
The baseline defenders (purple) mess up their rotation completely.
The ball side baseline defender (purple) should remain with the player on the baseline. Instead, he rotates up to the man in the middle of the zone, leaving his man completely open.
The back side baseline defender (purple) should rotate up to the man in the middle of the zone, instead, he just stands in the same place he’s been the entire possession. Both Iowa baseline defenders are paying attention to the man in the middle of the zone and have lost the Iowa State baseline defender.
However, because the pass is lobbed into the middle, the Iowa State player in the middle of the zone is focusing on catching the ball instead of being able to quickly move the ball to his open team mate on the baseline for the dunk.
Note: The shot clock is now at 3 seconds.
Rotation into a 1-3-1
Iowa State is running out of time to get a shot off, and Iowa State’s 1-2-2 is now for all intents and purposes a 1-3-1.
The top man (blue) remains up to to prevent the kick out to the top of the key.
The wing defenders (green) on the wings, looking to cut off any pass to Iowa State’s spot up shooters.
The ball side baseline defender (purple) has rotated up to the man in the middle of the zone.
The back side baseline defender (purple) has finally made the rotation down, cutting off the pass to the formerly wide open man on the baseline.
Iowa State is running out of time. A wing back cut from the weak side is wide open, but with only 2 seconds on the shot clock, there probalby isn’t enough time to finish the play even if he makes the cut.
Out of Time
The Iowa State player manages to spin around (and probably got fouled) the baseline defender that stepped up to guard him, but it’s too late, and he can’t get the shot off before the clock expires.
Attacking the zone
Iowa State had the right idea for attacking the zone, but couldn’t make the needed entry pass to the man occupying the middle until it was too late.
When Purdue struggles on offense, it’s because we over dribble. If you over dribble against the 1-2-2 Iowa will trap you. In fact, I expect them to attempt to trap the ball out of Carsen’s hands as soon as he touches the ball.
Purdue should look to beat this zone with quick ball movement. Iowa has struggled with their rotations all season, and the faster you move make the zone rotate, the more likely you are to find a wide open basket.
Getting an offensive player to the middle of the zone creates a real problem for this defense. I would be interested to see Nojel working the center of the zone, with Carsen up top, Cline and Eifert spotting up on the wings, and Haarms working the baseline. Nojel has the vision and size to find the open players and the passing ability to get them the ball.
Purdue will struggle against this zone if they don’t look to aggressively penetrate the middle of the zone either with the dribble or a man cutting to the middle of the zone for a pass. Iowa wants you to stand around and move the ball up top so they can rotate and jump into passing lanes.
The Boilermakers have the ability to punish Iowa when they slip into this look, but they also have a tendency to lose their composure and turn the ball over when the defense springs something different.
How Purdue handle’s the Iowa zone may be the determining factor in the game.
Luka Garza has been out of the Iowa lineup the last two games with a sprained ankle. His availability is questionable for the Purdue game. If Garza can play, and play effectively, he gives the Iowa offense a legit post threat from the center position on offense, and allows Tyler Cook to match up with Purdue’s 4’s. This would be ideal for Iowa, as Cook would look to punish the under sized Eifert in the post, and has the passing ability to find the open man if Purdue decides to double team.
Garza terrorized Purdue last year, scoring 19 points on 8-10 shooting, dragging the Haas / Haarms combination outside with his shooting ability and then beating them to the basket on duck downs. If he can go, Iowa’s chances of winning the game increase significantly,.
KenPom: Purdue 79 - Iowa 72 (74% confidence)
Drew: Purdue 85 - Iowa 77