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One Last Shot: What About Purdue in One Possession Games?

If it comes down to a final shot, things do not go well for Purdue.

NCAA Basketball: Purdue at Michigan State Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday I took a pretty deep dive into how Purdue has fared with this group of seniors in “Close” games. I defined a close game as any game that was within a possession after the final media timeout. That is a pretty wide definition, however. I found that one bad loss (Gardner Webb) found Purdue never really got all that close, as it only had one possession down three in the final minutes. Then you had Georgia State last year, where they were done scoring by the 4 minute mark and Purdue was already in the midst of a closing 20-0 run.

One thing that has seemed to go against Purdue is last second shots, however. If the game comes down to one last possession in regulation it feels like inordinately Purdue is the team not scoring, while it is the opponent that scores. I found that we had a decent 27-20 record in close games and were 9-7 against ranked teams, but what about then it is really on the line and one last possession decides it? Here is how those games turned out:

2014-15: Purdue 87, BYU 85 OT (Maui Invitational 5th place game) – BYU missed with the final shot of regulation. A.J. Hammons hit the game winner with 1.8 seconds left in OT. Opponent miss, Purdue hit

2014-15: Gardner Webb 89, Purdue 84 (at Purdue) – P.J. Thompson missed a three to tie with a second left. Final margin came as the rebounder was fouled and he hit two free throws. Purdue miss

2014-15: Purdue 84, Penn State 77 OT (at Penn State) – Kendall Stephens hits a tying three inside the last five seconds and Purdue pulls away in overtime. Purdue hit

2014-15: Purdue 67, #25 Iowa 63 (at Purdue) – Peter Jok misses a tying three with 11 seconds left. Basil Smotherman hits a free throw after getting the rebound. Opponent miss

2014-15: Purdue 60, #20 Ohio State 58 (at Purdue) – D’Angelo Russell misses a tying three with 11 seconds left. They got the rebound, we fouled him, he hit both FTs, Purdue hit one of two, and Russell missed a heave at the buzzer. Opponent miss

2014-15: Minnesota 62, Purdue 58 (at Minnesota) – Vince Edwards is blocked at the rim with 6 seconds left. Minnesota rebounds and hits to free throws to seal it. Purdue miss

2014-15: Purdue 67, Indiana 63 (at Indiana) – Yogi Ferrell misses a game-winner with 8 seconds left. Hammons rebounds and hits two free throws. Opponent miss

2014-15: Ohio State 65, Purdue 61 (at Ohio State) – Rapheal Davis misses with 15 seconds left down 2. Ohio State hits 4 free throws in the last 13 seconds around a Jon Octeus layup. Purdue miss

2014-15: Cincinnati 66, Purdue 65 OT (NCAA Tournament) – Troy Caupain ties it at the buzzer. Vince Edwards misses the game-winner in OT. Opponent hit, Purdue miss

2015-16: Purdue 82, #8 Michigan State 81 OT (at Purdue) – Denzel Valentine misses on MSU’s final possession of regulation. Rapheal Davis hits a free throw with 5 seconds left and Hammons gets the rebound of the second one to close it. Opponent miss, Purdue hit

2015-16: Michigan 61, Purdue 56 (at Michigan) – Vince Edwards misses a tying three with 8 seconds left. Purdue miss

2015-16: #2 Michigan State 66, Purdue 62 (Big Ten Tournament Final) – Johnny Hill misses on a drive to tie in the last 10 seconds. Michigan State hits two free throws. Purdue miss

2015-16: Little Rock 85, Purdue 83 2OT (NCAA Tournament) – Josh Hagins hits a 25-footer to tie it with 4 seconds left in regulation. Purdue misses at the end of both overtimes. Opponent hit, Purdue miss x2

2016-17: #3 Villanova 79, Purdue 76 (at Purdue) – Caleb Swanigan and Carsen Edwards both miss decent looks to tie inside the last 10 seconds. Purdue miss x2

2016-17: Minnesota 91, Purdue 82 OT (at Purdue) – Swanigan ties it with 5 seconds left, but Purdue loses in overtime. Purdue hit

2016-17: Purdue 76, Ohio State 75 (at Ohio State) – Swanigan hits a free throw with 5 seconds left. Ohio State misses a half court heave. Purdue hit

2016-17: Iowa 83, Purdue 78 (at Iowa) – Dakota Mathias misses a tying three with five seconds left. Purdue miss

2016-17: Nebraska 83, Purdue 80 (at Nebraska) – Dakota Mathias misses a tying three at the buzzer. Purdue miss

2016-17: Purdue 73, #17 Maryland 72 (at Maryland) – Carsen Edwards hits two free throws with 3 seconds left. After a bizarre turnover Maryland gets a good look with a second left, but misses. Opponent miss, Purdue hit

2016-17: Purdue 74, Penn State 70 OT (at Penn State) – Purdue fails to get a shot off at the end of regulation after Tony Carr tied it with 20 seconds left. Purdue pulls away in OT. Purdue miss

2016-17: Michigan 74, Purdue 70 OT (Big Ten Tournament) – Zak Irvin ties it with 5 seconds left in regulation. Carsen Edwards misses a three at the buzzer of regulation. Opponent hit, Purdue miss

2017-18: Tennessee 78, Purdue 75 OT (Battle 4 Atlantis Game 1) – Lamonte Turner ties it with 5 seconds left. Carsen Edwards misses at the end of regulation. P.J. Thompson misses down 1 with 9 seconds left and Purdue turns it over with a chance to tie down 3 with a second left in in overtime. Opponent hit, Purdue miss x3.

2017-18: Purdue 80, Maryland 75 (at Maryland) – Jared Nickens misses a tying 3 for Maryland with 15 seconds left. Opponent miss

2017-18: Purdue 74, Northwestern 69 (at Purdue) – Bryant McIntosh misses a tying three with 4 seconds left. Opponent miss

2017-18: Purdue 70, Michigan 69 (at Michigan) – Isaac Haas hits a free throw with 4 seconds left for the win. Michigan misses a semi-decent look at the buzzer. Purdue hit, Opponent miss

2017-18: #14 Ohio State 64, Purdue 63 (at Purdue) – Keita Bates-Diop scores on a putback with 2.8 seconds left. Haas has a very difficult shot at the buzzer and misses. Opponent hit, Purdue miss

2017-18: #4 Michigan State 68, Purdue 65 (at Michigan State) – Miles Bridges hits a challenged 25-footer with 2.7 seconds left. Opponent hit

Final tallies:

Purdue hits final shot from the field to win or tie in regulation: 2 times - Minnesota (lost in OT anyway), at Penn State (won in OT)

Purdue hits free throws to win or tie in regulation: 4 times – Michigan State, at Maryland, at Ohio State, at Michigan

Purdue hits final shot from the field to win in OT: 1 time – BYU

Purdue misses final shot from the field to win or tie in regulation: 13 times – Yikes!

Purdue misses final shot from the field to win or tie in overtime: 4 times – Cincinnati and twice against Little Rock. Also Tennessee this year. Lesson here: DON’T GO TO OVERTIME IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT!!!!!!

Opponent hits final shot from the field to win or tie in regulation: 6 times – This includes the last two games, the Cincy and Little Rock games, the Michigan B1G Tournament game, and Tennessee this year. Three of Purdue’s four losses this season have come from an opponent hitting a shot in the last 5 seconds of regulation.

Opponent hits free throws to win or tie in regulation: 0 times – Surprisingly, we do very well when it comes to them fouling us and us not fouling them when it matters most.

Opponent hits final shot from the field to win in OT: 0 times

Opponent misses final shot from the field to win or tie in regulation: 9 times – This includes the heave that hit the rim for Michigan this year at Michigan.

Opponent misses final shot from the field to win or tie in overtime: 0 times

When it comes to a final possession at the end of regulation or overtime Purdue has successfully scored 7 times, but it still lost one of those games (Minnesota last season). Purdue has failed to score 16 times with a final possession and the game on the line. Since it happened twice in one game (Little Rock) that’s only 15 losses, but still…

If it is the opponent with the final possession they have won six times, including three this year. They have lost 9 times with the final possession against these seniors.

Purdue has done a terrible job of hitting the final shot from the in regulation to win or tie. It has only converted twice, both to send the game to overtime, and it eventually lost one of those in overtime. It has failed on the final shot from the floor 13 times, so 2 of 15 (losing one of the two in OT) is not good. We’re also 1 for 6 with the final shot to win or tie in overtime, making it 3 of 21 from the floor with the game on the line in regulation. We have even tried multiple different players to hit said last shot. The ones that have been successful were Swanigan (vs. Minnesota) Kendall Stephens (at Penn State) and Hammons (vs. BYU). Thankfully, we are money at the free throw line with the game tied or trailing (4-0). Haas, Swanigan, Rapheal Davis, and Carsen Edwards have all come through at the line with the game tied or Purdue trailing. It should be noted that Haas, Swanigan, and Davis all missed the second FT after hitting the first in a tie game.

Defensively things are a little okay. Opponents have converted six times, three this year, to win on a final possession from the floor in regulation. They have not had the opportunity to win or tie at the free throw line. They have missed said final shot 9 times. So opponents are 6 of 15 from the field against when the game is on the line and Purdue is 3 of 21. The numbers do not match the total number of games because overtimes and such have given us multiple results. For example: the Little Rock game counts as an opponent hit (the Hagins three) and Purdue missing at the end of each overtime period.

Purdue’s final record where either team has had a possession to win or tie in the final seconds of regulation or overtime: 12-15. This includes the Minnesota game where Purdue hit the tying shot with 5 seconds left in regulation, but lost anyway. As far as this season goes, Purdue is 3-3 on games that come to a final possession. We beat Michigan, mryland, and Northwestern, but lost to Tennessee, Ohio State, and Michigan State.