According to SbNation’s S&P formula, Purdue’s chances of a bowl berth dwindled from 88% to 76% after a loss this weekend to Michigan State.
While 76% is clearly still above average, I was feeling much more comfortable at 88%. Purdue has 4 games remaining this season, with two being at home and two on the road. The two at home are not cupcakes either with being Iowa and Wisconsin. On the road, we will see Minnesota and IU in the annual bucket game.
According to ESPN’s FPI, Purdue is favored in 3 of the next four games, giving us a great chance at another bowl berth under 2nd year head coach, Jeff Brohm.
Here is what ESPN has for our next four games according to the FPI:
Iowa - 47.4% Chance of Victory
@ Minnesota - 71% Chance of Victory
Wisconsin - 55.6% Chance of Victory
@ IU - 72.2% Chance of Victory
Giving that we started the season 0-3, I think all of us are happy to be where we are. I kind of figured this year would be a down year, but really, Coach Brohm has gotten similar results with lesser talent this year and a more difficult schedule.
Before the season began, I topped us out at 5 wins, similar to last year, I expect the Boilermakers to prove me wrong and get a bowl berth and a bowl victory now. While the offense was down this past weekend, look for it to ramp back up when we are at home this weekend vs a ranked Iowa team.
Coach Holt had the defense humming going into Michigan State as well, but the back up quarterback diced us up, quite frankly. I didn’t think our pressure to the quarterback got there as much as it did during our 4 game winning streak, look for that to be a point of emphasis this weekend vs Iowa, as their QB is a tall pocket passer type of guy, who is not a great runner.
While this past weekend stunk, we are still favored in 3 of our last 4 and just need to win 2 to be bowl eligible. The Boilermakers can do this, but with only our support at their last two games at Ross-Ade.