FanPost

Bracket Reveal

Back on Feb 11, the tournament selection committee was kind enough to give us an early look at the bracket. With the regular season concluding earlier today, I figured I would provide a breakdown of how the teams on the coveted 3 and 4 lines finished up their respective seasons. While we were not a top 16 team on that day, it was hinted that we were in consideration for a spot, along with Wisc (lol), Creighton (not happening) and Cincy (included below). The numbers I used for the RPI were from ESPN as of this evening, so NW falling out of the top 50 is possible. Here's how things shaped up...

The 3 seeds:

9. Arizona: 5-1 (0-0 vs top 25, 1-1 vs top 50)
10. Virginia: 3-4 (1-2, 1-4)
11. Florida: 5-2 (0-1, 2-2)
12. Kentucky: 7-0 (1-0, 3-0)

The 4 Seeds:

13. Butler: 4-2 (1-0, 2-1)
14. WV: 5-2 (0-2, 0-2)
15. UCLA: 6-0 (1-0, 2-0)
16. Duke: 4-3 (1-1, 3-2)

Boilermakers: 5-1 (0-0, 2-1)
Bearcats: 5-2 (0-1, 0-1)

My Analysis:
Arizona: Nothing to hurt themselves, but nothing to warrant moving up - keep 'em on the 3 line.
Virginia: Get 'em out of here. I don't care if they beat UNC, this is not a top 16 team.
Florida: Their RPI is inexplicably high, so they are probably a 4 for now, but not by much.
Kentucky: Fairly impressive work, here, by the fighting Derek Willis'. Probably a 2-seed now.
Butler: Beating 'Nova twice is as impressive as it gets, but they've got some garbage losses. Gut says they're still a 4.
WV: They haven't done anything since Feb 11 - feel like we've passed them, but I don't want to see them in round 2.
UCLA: Probably looking at a 3-seed now.
Duke: I gotta think we've moved ahead of the Dukies, as well.

Taking all of this into consideration, I would say we have gained ground on Duke, WV, Butler, Florida and Virginia, but I would only move us ahead of Duke and WV. To get a 3-seed we probably need to win the B1G tourney and get some help from those 5 teams.

Boiler up.

*Note: No team discussed above suffered a sub-100 rpi loss after Feb 11

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