Ohio State at Purdue: Preview, Odds, & How to Watch

Every season when Purdue plays Ohio State it scares me more than any game. Sure, you have the hatred with Indiana, the bizarre poor game against Illinois (or Northwestern, or Nebraska, etc.), but under Matt Painter the game with the Buckeyes have been bad. Under coach Painter Purdue is 6-16 against the Buckeyes. Part of this stems from the Buckeyes being very, very good under Thad Matta (he is 17-8 against Purdue). Part of it is that they have long given us trouble with their talent and athleticism.

Whatever the reason, Ohio State's dominance since 1998 (Purdue is 7-25 against OSU since the end of the 1997-98 season) has allowed the Buckeyes to take an 89-84 lead in the overall series. That makes them the only Big Ten team (other than Maryland, who is 1-0) to have a winning record all-time against Purdue.

Hopefully things are turning in Purdue's favor. Purdue split the season series last year, getting its first win since February 20, 2011 and breaking a six game losing streak. This game will only be the third time in the last 12 games where Ohio State has not been ranked, and in six of those they were in the top 10 and four of them they were in the top 3.

This has been one of Thad Matta's toughest seasons in Columbus, but the Buckeyes are still dangerous. A four-game losing streak early on had them at 2-4 with losses to Texas-Arlington (previous home of Johnny Hill) and Louisiana Tech. they recovered to beat Kentucky on a neutral floor, but in general they have been pretty abysmal away from home. In conference play they won at Northwestern by nine, but lost at Indiana by 25 and Maryland by 35. Those results were all within the past 10 days, and they sandwiched a weird game with Rutgers where they trailed at halftime at home, but rolled to a 94-68 win thanks to a completely dominant second half.

There are plenty of familiar names on the Ohio State roster from recent recruiting battles. Trevor Thompson transferred from Virginia Tech to OSU and was a target of the Boilers. Keita Bates-Diop was long a target as a forward. JaQuan Lyle is another name we have seen a lot of in recent years. It is Thompson, along with Daniel Giddens who will have the task of playing against Purdue's front line. Thompson is averaging 6.4 points and 5.2 rebounds, but this is mostly complimentary to Ohio State's style.

The Buckeyes have big, athletic wings that can easily cause problems for Purdue. The 6'8" Marc Loving is having a breakout year after mostly being a three-point specialist the last two seasons. He averages a team high 13.9 points and 5.6 rebounds. With the ball in his hands more he is already at a career high for turnovers, but he had 27 points against Illinois and can be a matchup issue.

Bates-Diop, Tate, and Lyle are all averaging in double figures and can be perimeter threats. Lyle is one of the best distributors in the Big Ten at 5.2 assists per game. He is also one of the team's better shooters at over 50%.

What has hampered the Buckeyes is their scoring. They are 10^th in the Big Ten at 71.9 points per game, which is almost eight points behind Purdue. The defense has been holding teams to 66.5 points per game, but this is not a team known for its offense. It has also struggled from the line, hitting a conference worst 65.2%.

Like against most teams, Purdue is going to have an advantage in the paint. Thompson is going to be overmatched and Bates-Diop is not a back-to-the-basket four. Loving is a size mismatch, however, and can cause problems. This is a bit like the Illinois game where their athletic wings caused all kinds of havoc. Purdue simply has to defend the perimeter better against teams like this or it is in severe trouble down the road. Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana are just a few teams with better perimeter players to name a few.

So yes, this game scares me. Ohio State is a much better version of Illinois, and the Illini whipped us pretty good. When you throw in that Painter has not been very successful against Matta you have me flying the upset alert banner.