Purdue at Michigan State: Time, TV, Odds, Streaming, How to Watch

Sunday night was a missed opportunity. Tonight is merely another chance. A victory not only clinches a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament, it would be another win over a top 50 RPI team, a second top 50 true road win, a third top 50 win away from home, and a 20^th win overall. Very likely Purdue clinches an NCAA Tournament berth if it wins this game.

It won't be easy, however. Winning at the Breslin Center never is, but when fans looked at this final stretch a few weeks ago it was looked at as the most likely chance for a road win over Indiana and Ohio State. Well, we already got the one in Bloomington, and this is a flawed Michigan State team that is good, but is not the juggernaut it has been in recent seasons. This is absolutely a game Purdue can win, and if it goes in with the mentality to silence critics about being on the Bubble it can get that victory.

The Spartans have won six in a row against Purdue since the Boilers won by 20 in East Lansing during JJ and E'Twaun's final season. That game also marked the last time Purdue looked like an unstoppable juggernaut before completely falling apart that season. As always, Michigan State is a good, well-coached team. They haven't been quite as good as in recent seasons, however. They have struggled at home in conference play with losses to Maryland, Illinois, and Minnesota. They had  overtime home games against Northwestern and Michigan. A total of four games in B1G play have gone to OT in East Lansing. Only against Indiana have they looked really good at home. They even have that loss to Texas Southern. While TSU might be the best MEAC team and an NCAA team, they are still a MEAC team and Texas Southern.

A huge reason Michigan State has struggled is their free throw shooting. They are awful at it, especially in close games. As a team they shoot only 63% from the line. Branden Dawson is atrocious at 47.2% and Gavin Schilling is bad at 46.6%. The only good shooter at the line is Denzel Valentine, who hits 83.6% of his shots. It is no coincidence that he leads them in scoring at 14.7 points per game.

Travis Trice also averages over 14 points per game and both he and Dawson are dangerous three-point shooters. Bryn Forbes is their third long range option at 45.7% from long range, but this is still a typical Michigan State team that loves to play tough, hard-nosed basketball. Dawson, a senior that has tormented Purdue for three years, emulates their style by averaging 12 points and a Big Ten best 9.6 rebounds per game.

Michigan State is a gritty team, but we know that. They are third in the nation in assists per game and 30^th nationally in rebounding. That means they share the ball extremely well, look to make the extra pass, and they are going to be demons on the boards. They are 30^th nationally in field goal percentage too, so they don't take dumb shots. Their Achilles heel has been at the free throw line, which has cost them at least three games. Trice is second in the Big Ten at 5.5 assists per game and Valentine is 8^th at 4.1, so both can run the offense well.

It comes down to guts. Purdue played well for about 28 minutes in Columbus, but did not finish against the Buckeyes. Michigan State is very similar. Matt Costello and Schilling are the only ones even close to A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas in size, and they are both 6'9". If they were to get into foul trouble Purdue will have an even more pronounced advantage. The Boilers must exploit this. Hammons and Haas need to be dominant inside and we need more from guys like Vince Edwards and Basil Smotherman.

This is merely an excellent opportunity to seal the deal 10 days in advance. Win this, and Selection Sunday will be much more relaxed.