Purdue Basketball: Checking Out the Resume

Purdue is in the home stretch of the basketball season, and their spot in the NCAA tournament is hanging by a thread. In the interest of time wasting, I thought it would be interesting to compare Purdue's current NCAA resume with that of the last Big 10 team to make it into the tournament last year, Iowa. The information I'm providing is all on the NCAA team sheet. The team sheets are what the NCAA committee looks at when they discuss seeding and bids. Of course, the "eye test" probably plays some factor, but since it's impossible to quantify that, I'll just provide the facts, followed by a little LegendofShawnMcCarthy commentary.

Purdue Results:

Non-Conference

Location - Team	Outcome	RPI
(H)Samford	W	290
(H)IUPUI	W	258
(H)Grambling	W	351
(N) Kansas St	L	78
(N) Missouri	W	199
(N) BYU	W	38
(H) Nc. State	W	53
(H) North Florida	L	170
(H) IPFW	W	211
(H) Arkansas St	W	256
(@) Vanderbilt	L	97
(N) Notre Dame	L	27
(H) Gardner Webb	L	156
Overall	8-5

Conference

Location - Team	Outcome	RPI
(H) Minnesota	W	76
(H) Michigan	W	81
(@) Wisconsin	L	6
(H) Maryland	L	10
(@) Penn State	W	118
(@) Illinois	L	59
(H) Iowa	W	47
(H) Indiana	W	44
(@) Northwestern	W	116
(H) Ohio State	W	36
(@) Minnesota	L	76
(@) Rutgers	W	157
(H) Nebraska	W	123
(@) Indiana	W	44
(H) Rutgers	W	157
(@) Ohio State	L	36
(@) Michigan St.	TBD	32
(H) Illinois	TBD	59
Overall	11-5

Iowa's last year resume vs Purdue's this year resume:

RPI Win/Loss Average:

Iowa - Average RPI Win: 157

Purdue - Average RPI WIn: 140

Iowa - Average RPI Loss: 35

Purdue - Average RPI Loss: 71

Purdue beat slightly better (+17) teams than Iowa beat last season.

Purdue lost to significantly worse teams (-36) than Iowa lost to last season.

Iowa's Average win RPI wasn't that good, and neither is Purdue's. That bodes well for Purdue, but Purdue's Average RPI loss is pretty putrid, while Iowa mostly lost to decent teams. That is a big black mark for the Boilermakers.

Advantage: Iowa

Win/Loss Record:

Overall:

Iowa: 20-12

Purdue: 19-10

Non Conference:

Iowa: 11- 3

Purdue: 8-5

Currently, Purdue is on pace to finish conference play with a similar overall record as Iowa had last year. A split of the next to game puts Purdue at 20-11 heading into the Big 10 tournament. Two wins puts Purdue at 21-10 heading into the Big 10 tournament. Two losses puts Purdue at 19-12 heading into the Big 10 tournament.

Purdue needs to at least match Iowa's 20-11 regular season, which requires a split in the upcoming games. Two wins, including a big road win over Michigan St. puts Purdue in solid shape, and possibly off the play-in game bubble. Keep in mind that Iowa lost their first game in the Big10 tournament to Northwestern last year, while Purdue has the potential to do much better. However, if Purdue does end up with a double bye and loses it's first game against a solid opponent, how would that be considered by the committee? Either way, Purdue needs to finish the season with a better record than last years Iowa team. If they have matching win/loss records Purdue is in deep trouble.

Advantage: Purdue (subject to change)

Strength of Schedule:

Iowa: 61

Purdue: 68

Non-Conference

Iowa: 280

Purdue: 180

Purdue will end the season with a slightly stronger SOS than Iowa had last season. Purdue will have a significantly better SOS in the non-conference, but Iowa only dropped 1 bad game and Purdue dropped 2....possibly 3 (please keep winning Vandy).

Neither Purdue nor Iowa (last season) have a great SOS. If the committee puts a premium on SOS, then we're probably hosed, but just based on Iowa's SOS last year, if the committee is somewhat consistent, Purdue's SOS probably won't hurt or help them. SOS won't get Purdue in, but I doubt it keeps them out.

Advantage: Purdue

RPI:

Overall:

Iowa: 63

Purdue: 57

Non-Conference

Iowa: 23

Purdue: 180

Purdue should end up with a better RPI than Iowa, possibly a significantly higher RPI. There are no more RPI crushing games left on the schedule, so there should be no where to go but up for the Boilemakers. Honestly, I don't know why they have the Non-Conference RPI included, but as you can see, Purdue's was terrible.

Purdue's RPI is much like it's strength of schedule. It's not bad enough to exclude them from the discussion, but it's not good enough to get them into the field. It pretty much puts them firmly on the bubble.

Advantage:

Purdue (subject to change)

Record Pre RPI Group:

Iowa:

1-50 RPI:

Overall: 4-9

Home: 3-3

Away: 1-5

Neutral: 0-1

Non-Conference: 0-2

Purdue:

1-50 RPI:

Overall: 5-4

Home: 3-1

Away: 1-2

Neutral:1-1

Non-Conference:1-1

Hold on, because this is going to change significantly before the end of the Big 10 regular season. As of now, Purdue looks pretty good, but that could change quickly if Indiana and Iowa drop out of the top 50. I'm not saying I'm rooting for Indiana, but it would really help if they stayed where they are in the RPI. Purdue could also improve slightly if Nc. State can stop being so hot and cold and move into the top 50. After getting spanked on the road by Boston College the Wolfpack are trending down, but they have the ability to beat anyone when they are on top of their game. One stat that doesn't show up is that Purdue doesn't have a top 30 RPI win as of right now. To be fair, they've only played three top 30 teams, but they are 0-3 in those match ups. Purdue has a bunch of wins against teams in the low 40s, which aren't huge wins. Last year Iowa has 2 top 30 wins.

5-4 against the Top 50 would be looked as a plus for Purdue. 3-4 (if I.U. continues to suck) wouldn't be a plus. 2-4 (If Iowa drops out) would be bad...real bad. Personally, I'm rooting for 67-4 with I.U. and Iowa just above 50 and Nc. State sneaking into the top 50 in the next week, and Purdue defeating Michigan St. next week. I can't see a 7-4 vs top 50 team being left out, in fact, I can't really see a 7-4 vs top 50 team in a play in game.

Advantage: Purdue (as of right now)

Iowa:

51-100:

Overall: 2-2

Home: 0-1

Away: 1-1

Neutral:1-0

Non-Conference: 1-0

Purdue:

51-100:

Overall: 3-4

Home: 3-0

Away: 0-2

Neutral: 0-2

This is where you see a drop off in the Big 10 this year. Iowa played 13 top 50 games, mostly against Big 10 opponents. They only played 4 50-100 games. Conversely, Purdue will play 10 top 50 teams and somewhere between 6 and 8 50-100 teams. The Big 10 isn't quite as strong at the top this year, as compared to last year. Purdue has done well at home against teams in this category, but has yet to record an away win.

The Big10 not being as strong this season doesn't bode well for Purdue, and it certainly doesn't bode well for a team slightly below Purdue (read Illinois). These 50-100 games don't really hurt or help that much as long as you have a respectable record. One thing that could come back and bite Purdue is their ineptitude on the road. If the NCAA is looking for a team that travels well, Purdue is not that team.

Advantage: Push

Iowa:

101-200:

Overall: 7-1

Home: 3-0

Away: 2-0

Neutral: 2-1

Non-Conference: 3-1

Purdue:

101-200:

Overall: 6-2

Home: 1-2

Away: 3-0

Neutral: 2-0

Purdue and Iowa are somewhat similar, but we are now into the "bad loss" category. So Purdue's extra L weighs more than a loss in the 50-100 category weighs. In particular, Purdue's 2 home losses are dumbfounding.

Sigh, oh, what could have been. Take away those two bad losses, and we would be debating seeding, rather than "the bubble". What's even worse, is that Vandy is holding onto the top 100 by the narrowest of margins. 3 bad losses would put Purdue in an even more precarious situation. Kevin, if you're reading this, please just keep winning. You've done Purdue a big favor in fighting out of the RPI basement, let's keep it going against Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

Advantage: Iowa

Iowa:

200+

Overall: 7-0

Home: 7-0

Away: 0-0

Neutral:0-0

Non-Conference: 7-0

Purdue:

200+

Overall: 5-0

Home: 5-0

Away: 0-0

Neutral: 0-0

Non-Conference: 5-0

Purdue beat up on 5 really bad teams, while Iowa beat up on 7 really bad teams. This could change if Missouri falls from the top 200, giving Purdue 6 wins over tomato cans.

The NCAA doesn't care about these games unless you lose them. I guess they care if you play too many of them. Purdue seems to be in good shape in this category.

Advantage: Push

Overall:

Purdue has a slightly better resume than last years Iowa team at this point. That looks good, but the Big 10 is slightly worse than it was last year, and Iowa had a few more big wins. Purdue and Iowa are in similar positions, Iowa was able to squeak into the playoff game, will Purdue be that lucky?

What Gets Purdue In?

Purdue's record against top 50 teams is solid. A road win against Michigan St, paired with teams like Indiana and Iowa hanging on to their top 50 status, and Purdue has a solid anchor for their NCAA tournament resume.

What Keeps Purdue Out?

Bad losses and only 1 decent road win could be Purdue's demise. The Boilermakers have an opportunity to pick up another decent road win against Michigan State, but man, I don't like resting our hopes on beating M.S.U. on senior night in the Breslin Center, but that's kind of where we are right now. Beat M.S.U. and we're in, lose to M.S.U. and we're going to be in some serious trouble.