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To make the NCAA Tournament you have to hold serve at home, especially against the bottom teams in your conference. This game tonight is a lot like last week's against Nebraska. A victory does not put Purdue into the Dance, but a loss, especially to one of the two sub-100 RPI teams in the Big Ten, would be disastrous at home. The Boilers have to be careful. The Nittany Lions are a tough, tough team that is capable of pulling an upset and getting this one.
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Projected Starters |
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Purdue Boilermakers (12-5, 2-2) |
Penn State Nittany Lions (9-9, 0-5) |
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Terone Johnson - Sr. |
Ross Travis - Jr. |
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Ronnie Johnson - So. |
Donovon Jack - So. |
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Rapheal Davis - So. |
Tim Fazier - Sr. |
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Basil Smotherman - Fr. |
D.J. Newbill - Jr. |
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A.J. Hammons - So. |
Geno Thorpe - Fr. |
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Series with Purdue: |
Purdue leads 31-11 |
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Last Purdue win: |
68-59 at Penn State on 2/5/2013 (Purdue has won 13 of last 15) |
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Last Penn State win: |
65-45 at Penn State on 1/5/2012 |
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Odds: |
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Blog Representation: |
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Location: |
State College, PA |
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Best Postseason Result: |
NCAA Final Four 1954,Nine NCAA appaearances, last in 2011 |
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2012-13 record: |
10-21, 2-16 Big Ten (no postseason) |
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Coach: |
Pat Chambers (70-76 overall, 28-48 in 3rd year at Penn State) |
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RPI: |
127 |
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Time: |
7pm |
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Streaming Video: |
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TV: |
ESPNU |
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Radio: |
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Streaming Audio: |
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Penn State is one of those dangerous teams that can catch you sleeping if you aren't careful. They don't have any good wins on the year, but they played a decent game at Pittsburgh in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and came close to knocking off both Indiana and Minnesota at home. They have also lost to Princeton and Bucknell, so they are a little up and down.
The Nitts are led by two outstanding guards in D.J. Newbill and Tim Frazier. I really thought Frazier, who came back from injury last season, would have the Talor Battle Memorial "I am single-handedly going to drag Penn State to an NCAA bid" season. His numbers have been good at 16.7 points, 4 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game, but the supporting cast has lacked consistency. Newbill actually leads them in scoring at 17.3 points per game.
Ross Travis (10.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and John Johnson (10 ppg) also average in double figures while Brandon Taylor (9.8 ppg, 5 rpg) is also close to double figures. That gives the Nittany Lions a solid top five with Donovon Jack and Allen Roberts also contributing a decent amount. The production really drops off after that top 7, however. It doesn't help that Johnson has only played six games after becoming eligible at midseason. He is a transfer from Pitt and in his first six games he has played well, including 18 points at Illinois.
Where Purdue should have a physical advantage in the middle is with A.J. Hammons. In all but the Minnesota game Hammons has been an absolute load for teams to handle, and Penn State has no one on par with Elliott Eliason to defend him. The continued strategy of "give the ball to A.J. and get out of his way" should be deployed, as the 6'9" Jack is the only player even close to matching A.J. physically.
If A.J. continues the tear he is on it will open things up for Purdue. Kendall Stephens hit some very big shots against Illinois and I still say that Sterling Carter has a mad bomber game in him. If he can get hot Purdue suddenly has a very well-rounded offense that can dominate inside (Hammons), shoot from outside (Carter, Stephens) and get to the rim (Johnson brothers, Bryson Scott).
A.J. had 12 and 15 in the two games against Penn State last season and he had double figures in rebounds in each game. He also averaged four blocks in the two games, so we know he can be physically dominant against Penn State. It is entirely possible we could see a triple-double, as he had 12 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks in the game at Mackey last season.
If A.J. gets his numbers tonight, Purdue rolls.