FanPost

Annual Boiler Basketball Forecast 2013-14 (Results)

Thank you for the participation in the Annual Boiler Basketball Forecast. We have 66 entries this year, and the winner is oldegoldbleeder. QuadBoiler14 is #2 and ETM is #3. All of them score a 5 (out of 10) or better.

Here's an analysis of our collective predictions, what goes right and what goes wrong:

1) Name the starting 5 for the first regular season game (0.2 pts for each correct prediction)

2) Name the starting 5 for the first BTT game (0.2 pts for each correct prediction)

For these two, the interesting thing is that more people get #2 right than #1. In fact, *NO ONE* predicted all 5 starters for the opening game (even when allowing the Hammons edit), but 13 entries (almost 20%!) predicted the 5 starters in the first BTT game! So we predict the starting lineup 5 months down the road better than the starting lineup in 3 hours!

3) How many games Purdue will win?

4) What place we finish in the B1G?

5) What's our last game of the season?

Not surprisingly, EVERYONE gets these three wrong, including the IU guys. In terms of wins, the closest are JustAJ, USFboiler (our champ last year), and hoffdaddy83, who all guessed 18. The max was 26 and average 21.2.

In terms of finish, the closest are 7th, which JustAJ, USFboiler, NotoriousNate, and Hummel's Figurines predicted. The most optimistic prediction is #1 in the B1G, and no surprise that is M18J's call. (To his credit, his total score is at the 75-percentile)

Obviously no one predicted our last game is a first round BTT finish. In our defense, there were plenty of reasons to be optimistic at the beginning of the season: a) Hammons and Jay work hard to get in game shape by losing 30 lbs, b) the Johnson brothers paid $1300 out of pocket to hire a shooting coach to work on their FTs/jumpers, and Ronnie closed last season on a strong note with 27 pts, 6 ast, 3 stls against Santa Clara, c) the addition of the incoming class, where Bryson Scott (whom everyone compared to Kramer/Craft), Jay Simpson (whom Painter called the most talented player), Kendall Stephens (unlimited range) and Basil Smotherman (Barlow-level of athleticism but with a "give-a-shit" turned on all the time). If a horrible Purdue team can still finish 8-10 last year at the toughest conference in America, is it really that unreasonable to expect at least 10-8? In a way, there are improvements and moments of brilliance, but they are inconsistent and most importantly, never gel as a TEAM.

6) Rank our freshmen by production (=PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO).

7) Rank our sophomores by production.

As discussed on another thread, the "Production" formula is flawed b/c it doesn't penalize the bad shots (esp. by JBJ). The "Production" formula is a quick-and-dirty approximation, and as engineers sometimes we take the tradeoff for simplicity over accuracy. I intentionally choose it to be this way such that Hammons won't be the overwhelming prediction. And to be fair, even if we include FG-missed and FT-missed, the ranking of the Top 4 won't change (still Hammons > TJ > RJ > RayD), but that the difference between AJH and TJ will be a lot larger, and that it'll also push Kendall down from #5 to #7.

8) Rank our top 3 scorers

9) Rank our top 3 rebounders

Interestingly, 8 ppl got the top 3 scorers correct, while none got the top 3 rebounders correct (only one got Basil at #3). However, on average, people scored only 0.44 pts on the Top 3 scorers and 0.53 on the Top 3 rebounders. I supposed AJH as an automatic leader in rebounding makes it an easy call. This is another reason why I don't want predictions that are too "easy."

10) Breakout Player of the Year - basically the one who improves the most from previous season, or the new comer that exceeds the most expectation.

That's a tough one and we've discussed it in another thread. Basically no one really stands out (unlike Ryno, DJ, or Sandi making the jump). So basically I give everyone 0.5 as long as his answer is not {TJ, Jay, Taco}. I can make a case for anyone but those 3 having a "breakout season."

Tie breaker) FT%

Median prediction is 70.7% and we actually shot 67.1%, so give credit to {BloomingtonBoiler, SoCal, FerrisBoilers} for predicting 67%. septimusharding is also close at 67.3%. Unfortunately, they are also among the lowest prediction (only JustAJ @ 66.7% and BoilerBanker @ 61% predicted worse). I blame the Johnson brothers shooting coach for giving us too much optimism.

Items in the FanPosts is entirely at the discretion of those that post them. They do not represent the views of Hammer & Rails, SBNation, or Purdue University in any way.

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