FanPost

An advanced-metric look at the sophomore class

Someone has expressed an interest in articles on advanced metric, so I'll take this opportunity to look at our three sophomores via the lens of pace-adjusted stats. For example, instead of raw numbers (e.g. number of rebounds collected) or per-game numbers, here we use DR% or OR%, which is the percentage of rebounds collected. This allows easier comparison between players on different teams or different eras that play vastly different number of minutes.

In CBB, players tend to make the biggest jump going from frosh to soph, as they finally adjust to the speed of the game, learn the system, and get into college-level strength program. I really like our three sophomores, and my burning question is, who is the most likely to make the leap to go from good to great?

Let's start with Kendall Stephens since some are calling him GOAT. I'll compare him to Nik Stauskas and Kellen Dunham, all 6-6 shooters. There are many areas Stephens needs to work on, but I'd say the easiest and biggest bang on the buck is his shot selection. Yes, he should get the green light to shoot 3s, but there is no reason that he cannot be a 44% shooter like Stauskas. He shot only 37% b/c many times I see him rushing his shots or taking contested shots. He needs to be more patient, and go with the flow of the offense. Pass over a decent look and wait for a good look. Furthermore, he has no 2-pt game compared to Stauskas and Dunham, shooting a miserable 31% in 2-pointers when Stauskas made 50% and Dunham 43%. He is also not getting to the line enough, despite the heaviest of the three, so he is not taking advantage of his 87% FT%. His rebounding is the worst among the three, and he is committing A LOT more fouls than the other two. Now of course there's the excuse that he was not 100% healthy last year, and if I have to guess, I'll say he'll make the leap in his junior year.

Player Ht Wt Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss %Shots eFG% TS% OR% DR% ARate TORate Blk% Stl% FC/40 FD/40 FTRate FTM-FTA Pct 2PM-2PA Pct 3PM-3PA Pct
Kendall Stephens 6-6 193 Fr 32 50.2 110.9 17.7 23.3 49.8 52.8 1.1 8.5 7.5 11.7 2 1.3 3.6 2.5 16.4 32-37 0.865 16-52 0.308 64-173 0.37
166
Nik Stauskas 6-6 190 Fr 39 75.6 122.8 16.2 17.5 59.7 63.4 2.1 9.4 7.6 14.2 0.8 1.1 0.9 2.7 29.2 74-87 0.851 58-116 0.5 80-182 0.44
36 52 35 296 2
Kellen Dunham 6-6 185 Fr 36 65 115.2 17.8 20.6 48.5 55.4 2.8 9.8 8.6 13.2 0.5 1.4 1.9 3.8 40.5 91-105 0.867 40-94 0.426 57-165 0.345
198 441 208 111 466

Next I look at Basil. I am comparing him to Glenn Robinson III and Branden Dawson, all athletic #4. Basil is an inch shorter, but makes up with his weight. All are very efficient, as most of their points are dunks, with GR3 the most efficient among all. GR3 can be serviceable at 3-pt shots (the other two <8%), and is a much better FT-shooter than the other two (who were both <60%). Meanwhile, Dawson is way ahead in offensive rebounding, and he also assist, block and steal much better, despite turning the ball over much more often. My guess is that Basil will follow more like GR3 since I've read that Basil has worked with Bryson on the 50k jump shots over the summer. In the scrimmage he hit 3-of-4 threes, so that might be a sign for things to come. Until he has proven he can be a reliable shooter, I'd actually like Vince Edwards be our starting #4 even though I think Basil is the better player. It's about better fit with Hammons and we need players to space the floor for Hammons to operate. I think he has the most upside, but his real breakthrough will only come when he has a reliable shot. One thing that also stands out for Basil is that he fouls too much compared to the other two, and he needs to cut that down while still playing solid defense.

Player Ht Wt Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss %Shots eFG% TS% OR% DR% ARate TORate Blk% Stl% FC/40 FD/40 FTRate FTM-FTA Pct 2PM-2PA Pct 3PM-3PA Pct
Basil Smotherman 6-5 222 Fr 32 46.1 119 12.9 12.6 58.5 58.8 8.1 13.9 6.7 12.9 0.7 1.5 4.4 2.9 43.8 28-49 0.571 64-100 0.64 1-12 0.083
153 288
Glenn Robinson III 6-6 210 Fr 39 83.3 128.4 15.2 15.5 61.1 62.6 7.8 11.4 5.8 10 0.8 1.9 1.3 2.9 36 71-105 0.676 144-221 0.652 23-71 0.324
187 10 33 45 37 15
Branden Dawson 6-6 216 Fr 31 43.1 109.8 21.8 21.8 57.7 58.4 13.3 12.5 9.5 18.9 4.8 2.8 2.6 3.8 36.5 41-69 0.594 109-186 0.586 0-3 0
461 60 209 334 468

Lastly, I look at Bryson Scott, and I compare him to Aaron Craft and our beloved CK3. Bryson is the shortest yet the heaviest. The thing that stands out most is the 2-pt FG%, where Bryson is a miserable 36% and Craft is a stellar 51%. We all know a lot of those were Bryson ramming his way against 3 defenders, and we all hate that kind of playing style. However, don't take away that aggressiveness b/c Bryson is getting fouled at a higher rate than even AJ Hammons. He is getting to the line and making 74% of them. Scott's STL-rate is very good, but Craft and Kramer were just a league of their own, so Scott's number seems unimpressive but he's actually among the top in the league. Despite the countless TOs I swear I saw on Bryson, he is actually turning it over at a fewer rate than Craft and Kramer. Craft was a much better passer and setting up his teammates though. Among the three, Scott is the best rebounder. With Scott, it's very simple: stay aggressive driving to the basket and draw fouls, but don't force it if the shot isn't there. Doing just that and he can easily be the best of the three. True, I don't think his STL rate will get to Kramer/Craft level, but he can make that up by being a much better rebounder. If he can improve his 2-pt FG while continuing to live off the line, then he will be very hard for Painter to keep on the bench. As much as fans love PJ (and me too), I think PJ will have a rude awakening when he plays against better competition just like Bryson had last year, and that's when Bryson needs to step in and be that much needed energy spark coming in at the guard position. If he can beat out PJ, I like Scott's chance in being the most productive sophomore of the three.

Player Ht Wt Yr G %Min ORtg %Poss %Shots eFG% TS% OR% DR% ARate TORate Blk% Stl% FC/40 FD/40 FTRate FTM-FTA Pct 2PM-2PA Pct 3PM-3PA Pct
Bryson Scott 6-1 201 Fr 32 38.3 91.4 25.8 23.1 37.4 45.8 4.7 13.4 17.4 21 0.6 3.5 4.3 5.8 55.9 70-95 0.737 56-157 0.357 5-13 0.385
Aaron Craft 6-2 195 Fr 37 73.8 110.5 16.7 11.8 53.3 57.7 2.3 9.9 26.5 26.6 0.4 4.1 3.7 3.1 48.9 64-88 0.727 57-111 0.514 26-69 0.377
405 338 285 183 33 310
Chris Kramer 6-3 195 Fr 30 60.9 98.9 16.9 16 46.6 51 3.1 9.8 17.2 22.6 0.6 4.6 2.6 3.2 38.5 49-69 0.71 64-142 0.451 13-37 0.351
18 404

P.S. The data comes from kenpom. If there are two numbers appear on a cell, the bottom number is the national ranking.

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