Purdue Bball Roster Analysis (Loss, Return, Gain) and Season Prediction

I liked the fanpost that sea.of.white posted a couple days but thought it should be a little more in depth. Upon doing that I came up with way TOO MUCH important information to put in a fanpost, so i decided just to do Purdue instead. I will go over 3 sections of the roster: What we lost from last year, what we return, and what we gain to this years team. I also throw in a random prediction for the season mainly for conversation purposes. This is a long one, get your popcorn.



1. D.J. Byrd

2. Sandi Marcius

3. Anthony Johnson

4. Jacob Lawson

5. Dru Anthrop

Average Team % loss from leaving players: 33.0%

Combined Shooting % from leaving players:

FG%: 40.8%

FT%: 72.8%

3P%: 33.5%

2P%: 46.9%

Largest to Smallest % lost of each category:

1. 3PM: 62.1%

2. 3PA: 59.4%

3. STL: 43.5%

4. ASST: 34.8%

5. DFR: 33.8%

6. TO: 31.9%

7. PTS: 30.6%

8. FGA: 30.1%

9. TOTR: 30.0%

10. FGM: 28.9%

11. FTM: 26.7%

12. BLK: 26.1%

13. FTA: 23.9%

14. OFR: 22.9%

15. 2PM: 21.9%

16. 2PA: 21.4%

Last season our team had a lot of problems. 3 point shooters, immaturity, lack of chemistry, lack of leadership, offensive efficiency, not taking care of the ball, free throws. and defensive consistency. From last seasons team we lose most of our 3 point shots and a good chunk of our assists and steals, all mainly due to the loss of Byrd. Now on to what we return.


Average Team % Return: 67.0%

Combined Shooting % from returning players:

FG%: 596/1375 = 43.3%

FT%: 316/502 = 62.9%

3P%: 55/184 = 29.9%

2P%: 541/1191 = 45.4%

Im not going to go into the % return of the individual categories because you can just look above and see the things we return the most of, just reverse the list in the other section.


Errick Peck: 87 games, 17.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg (680 points), 3.2 rpg (280 rebounds), 1.1 apg, .4 spg, .4 bpg, FG%: 250-595 = 42.0%, FT%: 135-192 = 70.3%, 3P%: 45-127 = 35.4%, 2P%: 205-468 = 43.8%.

Peck is a very versatile player. He is 6-6 and would be a great SF, but also has the strength at 223 lbs and athleticism to play the PF for us, especially since Painter loves to play smaller lineups. He is a very smart shooter and scorer who takes chances when given them and does not force things, this will help teach the younger guys on our team hopefully. He can handle the ball reasonably well and can either drive, post, dunk, or score a 3 when he is set up. His senior year, Peck was still recovering from an injury that claimed what would have been his junior season and is excited to be able to play at 100% while at Purdue. Peck has the chance to start but it is not even close to a given thing.

Sterling Carter: 66 games, 23.8 mpg, 11.5 ppg (759 points), 3.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.0 spg, .3 bpg, FG%: 254-700 = 36.3%, FT%: 81-122 = 66.4%, 3P%: 170-462 = 36.8%, 2P%: 84-238 = 35.3%

Carter is a very interesting player. Had a fantastic freshman season where he scored 85 3s, but then, due to coaches decision, started to lose minutes rapidly. He is a volume 3 shooter there is no doubt about that but on this new team i think Carter will be able to do very well. Although 3 shooting is the first thing that jumps out about Carter he would like to be thought of more as a defender. I think Carter fits in perfect for what Purdue needs, a 3 shooter that can defend.

Kendall Stephens: KS comes in as the highest rated player Purdue has brought to West Lafayette since the classic 07 year. KS is as pure a shooter as you can ask for, but he is much different than Carter when it comes to scoring 3s. Kendall is not a volume shooter like Carter or Byrd, but is a very accurate 3 shooter who can score from anywhere and anyway. He has very underrated athleticism mainly due to the fact that his shot is so darn BEAUTIFUL! He is a tall and long guard at 6'5" with a 6'9" wingspan. Last i heard his shoulder was fine and he was shooting great but the concern now is his weight. On the latest Purdue roster he is listed as 185 lbs and could put on a few more pounds before the season starts.

Bryson Scott: Scott might be the most anticipated Purdue player in a long while. One of the top 40 scorers in Indiana HS basketball history and IMO the best on the ball defender in his class, Scott has all the makings to get big time minutes when the season comes. His scoring comes off of fearlessly driving to the basket to either get the bucket or get points at the foul line where he is very accurate, or from break away layups when he steals the ball, which he does A LOT. He has a pretty good midrange game to go along with his driving. His 3 shot is what he will need to work on the most. Shot pretty poor last summer from deep and did not shoot the 3 that well in the All-Star game. With the players around him i dont think Bryson needs to worry too much about his 3 shot right now. Matt Painter speaks very highly of Bryson's athleticism, defense, and work ethic, all of those things = minutes at Purdue. With Ronnie and Terone Johnson most likely taking the starting positions Bryson will still get plenty of time coming in to play for both of them. He can play both guard spots and if it werent for Ronnie Johnson being able to see plays before many others i would say Bryson would start over Ronnie. Really excited to see Bryson take the court.

Basil Smotherman: Basil is a lot like Errick Peck except he is a class ahead in athleticism. Basil is tall and strong, a perfect SF. He can handle the ball very well for his size and has a decent shot though it is not his strong suit. Basil has worlds of potential and i think it will take a little while for him to start to show how good he can be. Be patient with Basil, he will do well but the future is where Basil will start to drop jaws.

Jay Simpson: I know Jay was already on the team but we really havent seen Jay play for more than 2-3 minutes at a time. This will be Jays technical freshman year and i really hope he is what we all want him to be. Matt Painter still speaks of Jay as one of the most talented guys on the team, i just hope he is right. Jay is said to be able to do it all. Dribble, pass, shoot, post, and defend. Painter said in an interview that he thinks Jay is going to be very important this year in our front-court. My dream would be for Jay to play major mintes at the PF with Hammons and just consume every rebound that comes their way. Only time will tell if Jay is the player Matt sees and we all dream about.

The biggest concerns that came from the players leaving were 3 point shooting, assists, and steals. I think we are going to see a very different Purdue team this year. I think our 3 shooting is going to be much better than people expect. Here is how i would Rank our 3 shooters:

1. Kendall Stephens: i see Stephens getting great minutes and sinking a lot of 3s while shooting a high percent. He will be the main tool for 3s this season. I see him leading our team in both 3 pointers made and 3 point percent. Big expectations for a freshman but i have all the confidence in the world in KS.

2. Sterling Carter: 170-462 for 36.8% is an impressive stat for really only playing 2 seasons. He was the main man for 3s at Seattle but on this team whith other options around him i think Carter will do very well. I think he can come off the bench and play around 15 minutes a game and make 2-5 3s. He was recruited purely to make 3s and play defense. I dont think 2-5 3s a game is a very crazy prediction.

3. Terone Johnson: Terone has been improving his 3 shot every season. Total Terone is 83/260 for 31.9% from deep. Being the player who is most likely going to get the most minutes on the team he is going to have to be able to make 3s. Last year he shot 35% from 3, i think he improves his % while also making more 3s. Im predicting at least 40 3s this regular season for TJ.

4. Rapheal Davis: Davis made great strides in his game towards the end of the season last year and his 3 shot was one of the things he improved. The first half of the season Davis was 3/11 for 27.3% from 3. The 2nd half of the season he improved to 7/22 for 31.8% from 3 and i think he improves his accuracy even more this year. I dont see him on the same level of 3 shooting as the 3 above him but i see a respectable amount of shots from deep falling for Ray D.

5. Errick Peck: Peck takes smart shots when they come to him. He is not a prolific 3 shooter but like Ray D, i see a decent amount of 3s falling for the Senior.

6. Ronnie Johnson: On the season Ronnie was one of the worst 3 shooter i have seen in a while, but like Davis he made great improvement down the stretch. The first half of the season he was 3/26 for 11.5%. The 2nd half he got a lot smarter with his shot selection and was 3/10 for 30%. I think Ronnie will shoot in the 30% range from 3 but not make a whole lot, just enough to keep defenders up on him so he can leave them in the dust.

*The works in Progress*: Bryson Scott, Basil Smotherman, Jay Simpson, and Donnie Hale all have work to do on their 3 shot but there is time for them to get their groove. I dont see any of these players taking many 3s this season but i think they will make a few off and on during the year.

As far as assists and steals go i think our improved guard depth and experience will make up for the small amount lost.

My WAY TOO EARLY prediction for this team:

Non-Conference: 12-1

We really dont have a challenge until Oklahoma State, and i see us losing that game and playing Washington State and St. Joe's which i feel are very win-able games. Then the only games we can even consider challenges are Boston College, Butler, and West Virginia, none are super scary teams. I see our only non-conference loss going to Oklahoma State.

Conference: 10-8

I see 2 losses to OSU, 1 to MSU, 2 to UM, 1 to IU, 1 to Iowa, and a split series with Wisconsin.

Total Regular Season Record: 22-9

Maybe a couple wins in the B1G tournament and a return to the NCAA tourney.


Items in the FanPosts is entirely at the discretion of those that post them. They do not represent the views of Hammer & Rails, SBNation, or Purdue University in any way.

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