Non-Conference Opponents' Update: February 13
by BoilerTMill on Feb 13, 2012 1:19 PM EST
in Men's Basketball
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PrintThings certainly look a lot better this week. A very competitive loss at Ohio State and a 10 point win over an NCAA contender at home are a lot easier on the outlook of our beloved basketball team than seeing the momentum shift back to the south in our bitter rivalry with Indiana. Last night's victory brought us closer to the happy side of 50 in the RPI, and if we follow it up with a little winning streak here it should go north of 50 permanently.
More importantly, we got some help this past week from the teams we have beaten. Miami won a critical mid-week game at home before falling at Florida State. Temple cemented its hold atop the Atlantic 10, which rates No. 7 in conference RPI ahead of the Pac 12. Even Butler finally started carrying its weight a little and stopped sucking. Perhaps they got my memo
With six games left in the regular season I see Purdue as having the following in terms of its NCAA chances:
Win Four Or More Games = Locked In - Winning four games before the Big Ten Tournament definitely puts us in the field because it means at least one win over a top 25 teams (Indiana, Michigan, or Michigan State) and it gets us to the magic numbers of 20 wins overall and 10 in the Big Ten. There is no way a 10-win Big Ten team gets denied this year (unless it is Iowa, more on that later), especially one with two solid out of conference wins over Temple and Miami, plus a nice win over Iona.
Win Three Games = Likely In - Should Purdue finish the regular season at 19-12, 9-9 in the Big Ten it is still very likely safe as long as we don't suffer an embarrassingly bad loss in the Big Ten Tournament. The most likely scenario for this finish is beating Illinois, Penn State, and Nebraska. Those aren't great wins, but they make sure we avoid another "bad loss" and we clinch a critical 7-0 against Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, and Illinois. With Penn State, Nebraska, and Iowa (likely) out of at large consideration and the conference looking at 7 or more bids, that 7-0 mark against fellow bubble teams would be huge.
Of course, Illinois and Minnesota are quickly slipping to the wrong side of the bubble, and a victory over the Illini on Wednesday might be the final push they need. They are 1-6 in their last seven with the only win the 42-41 victory over Michigan State that is, quite frankly, saving their ass at the moment. They're already 5-7 in the league, and they still have to go to Nebraska (only a five point Illinois win at home), Ohio State, and Wisconsin while hosting Michigan. Illinois desperately needs Wednesday's game, and they are probably done without it.
Minnesota is trickier. It helps us a lot that we played them on their floor and won. They are 5-7 as well and have home games against OSU and MSU before going to Wisconsin. They got stung by Iowa twice, and have a crap sandwich in terms of a non-conference profile. The win at Indiana helps, but they likely need to beat OSU or MSU in the Barn to really have a chance.
Finally, you have Northwestern, who might be in the best shape of the possible NCAA teams behind us. Yes, they are 5-7 as well, but they have a nice win over Michigan State and they are buoyed by finally playing a non-conference schedule with some chest hair. Seton Hall is their best non-conference win, but simply playing Baylor was a good move. If Northwestern wins its next two home games against Minnesota and Michigan, then holds serve on the road against Penn State and Iowa, I think their streak will be over. Of course, upsetting Indiana this week or Ohio State at home later would be really nice too.
One wild card here is Iowa, who has a realistic shot of reaching 9-9 or better in the Big Ten with three home games and road games only at Penn State, Illinois, and Nebraska. They have a realistic shot of winning their last six if they play well, and that would really mess with people, except us, who swept them. Say they do go 6-0. They would be 11-7 in the Big Ten, but only 19-12 overall. Could they sneak in? I doubt it, but they would throw a wrench into everything if they came to Indianapolis on a roll and won a game or two here.
Still, as long as we get three more wins we should look pretty good to the committee. Getting a game in Indianapolis or two would be icing.
Win Two Games Or Less - This is where it gets dicey. At 18-13 and 8-10 I don't think it will be enough without a Penn State-esque run to the Big Ten Tournament final. Winning only two more means we likely only beat Nebraska and Penn State at home, while losing at Illinois and whiffing in our last three games against ranked teams. To me, that's not good enough. It would also put our critical "Last 10" at 4-6.
Clearly, our best bet is to win at Illinois Wednesday and finish off the Illini. In the meantime, here is how the rest of our profile looks. One negative is that beating Illinois again likely knocks them from the top 50.
Record: 16-9, 6-6 Big Ten (No. 1 RPI conference)
RPI: 55 (according to CBS Sports)
Top 25 RPI wins: Temple (18) (neutral)
Top 50 RPI wins: at Northwestern (43), Miami (FL) (35), Illinois (46), Northwestern (43)
Record vs. Top 50: 5-6 (plus a win over No. 56 Iona)
Bad Losses (sub 100 teams): Butler (114) (neutral), at Penn State (131)
Northern Illinois Huskies - 3-20, 2-9 MAC West, RPI: 328 - The Huskies won a game! They won at home 62-59 over Miami (OH) in a battle of the last place teams in each MAC division. Facing first place Akron on Saturday saw NIU return to its losing ways 75-51.
High Point Panthers -10-16, 5-10 Big South, RPI: 276 - High Point sprung a 70-65 upset at second place Coastal Carolina last week, but couldn't keep the momentum going during the weekend. Charleston Southern beat them 70-67 to end a modest two game winning streak. High Point is now in 9th place in the Big South
Iona Gaels - 19-5, 11-2 MAAC, RPI: 56 - Iona probably saw its at large chances end Friday night when they couldn't come back from a huge deficit in an 87-81 loss at Loyola (MD). That's three MAAC losses now to go with a bad loss to Hofstra. Their best win profile-wise is St. Joseph's at 48. They can still get the RPI above the 50 mark, but they need to beat WAC leading Nevada at home on Saturday to do so. If they are going to get an at large they cannot lose again until the conference title game, and that had better be against Loyola or Manhattan.
Temple Owls - 19-5, 8-2 Atlantic 10, RPI: 18 - Temple has won eight in a row and has a half game lead in the A-10 over St. Louis after beating Xavier 85-72 at home on Saturday. They are on the verge of getting into the top 25 (No. 27 this week) and will probably be there next week at this time with two more wins. This continues to be our best win, and it is a victory that gets even better as the weeks go on.
Alabama Crimson Tide - 16-8, 5-5 SEC, RPI: 32 - Alabama can't gain any traction, as a nine point loss at LSU on Saturday ended a three-game winning streak. The overall profile is enough to keep them in the field right now, but other than beating us and Wichita State they missed on a lot of non-conference chances. The suspension of Trevor Releford, Andrew Steele, Tony Mitchell, and JaMychal Green is nothing short of crippling though. It isn't known how long they will be out, but rest assured that our loss to them will be judged with them at full strength, which helps.
Western Michigan Broncos - 10-15, 4-7 MAC West, RPI: 185 - I am convinced that no one wants to win the MAC West, and WMU definitely doesn't with four straight losses now. They took first place Akron to overtime last week but lost 69-66. At Buffalo on Saturday was another close loss 59-57.
Coppin St. Eagles - 12-12,7-2 MEAC, RPI: 226 - Coppin State had just one game last week, an 84-81 loss at home to Delaware State that cost them a shot at second place in the MEAC. This is still a possible NCAA team as a threat in the MEAC tourney.
Miami Hurricanes - 15-7, 6-4 ACC, RPI: 35 - Thursday's 65-49 win at home over Virginia Tech marked the first time ever that the Hurricanes have won five in a row in ACC play, but they couldn't beat rival Florida State in Tallahassee on Saturday. Wednesday night they have a huge game at home against North Carolina, which could boost them into the NCAA Tournament with a win.
Miami has the opposite problem of us. They have a solid RPI, but the top 50 record (1-6 with losses also to No. 52 Mississippi and No. 55 Purdue) is suspect. They need some more good wins, and home games against Florida State and North Carolina are good chances for them. The one top 50 win, at Duke, is stellar though.
Xavier Musketeers - 16-9, 7-4 Atlantic 10, RPI: 57 - Zip ‘em up! The Musketeers may be done. The RPI has slipped to 57 after losing at Temple, and they are now two games back in the loss column in the A-10. Their best wins are at Vanderbilt and at home against St. Joseph's, making them 2-7 against the top 50. it may be in our best interest to have these guys lose their way off the Bubble, because we don't want to be on there with them.
Western Carolina Catamounts - 10-17, 4-10 Southern, RPI: 254 - WCU has lost 7 of 8 after dropping games to College of Charlseton and Furman. They are now in last place in their SoCon division, so the less said about the fact we struggled against them, the better.
Eastern Michigan Eagles - 11-14, 6-5 MAC West, RPI: 213 - EMU got a nice Saturday win over Ohio (19-6) and they appear to be the one team in the MAC West that is interested in winning the division. They sit at 6-5 and finish the year against MAC West teams.
Butler Bulldogs - 15-12, 9-6 Horizon, RPI: 114 - It's about damn time, Butler! The Bulldogs swept Youngstown state and Cleveland State this week to make a near 40 point jump in the RPI. Their next three are very winnable games at home before going to Horizon leader Valparaiso. Winning all four gets them to 19-12, 12-6, and they still have an outside shot of hosting the Horizon League Tournament then. As we know, this is about when Butler turns it on, and this can still be an NCAA team if they win the Horizon Tourney. That also likely would move them out of the "bad loss" category by getting them back in the top 100. Of course, we help that too by winning and improving their profile.
IPFW Mastodons - 10-15, 4-11 Summit, RPI: 287 - IPFW has now fallen lower than every other team we've played except Northern Illinois. They've lost 9 of 10, including a loss at Chicago State, who is 3-22.
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I agree
But the only thing I would point out is that We Are Purdue! Purdue always gets the short end of the stick. Remember, it isn’t sexy to be Purdue. Purdue doesn’t draw ticket sales or TV viewers. While I know this is the basketball tournament and not football bowl games, the idea still applies. I will feel “safe” when we are actually in on Selection Sunday. I do agree with your assessment though TMill… just have to point out the bad part about being a Purdue fan.
Buckeye by birth, but BOILERMAKER by the grace of God!
To us it is
unfortunately not to the rest of the country.
Buckeye by birth, but BOILERMAKER by the grace of God!
In my defense
I was posting from my desk at school (I’m a school teacher) and this picture did not show when I said “not to the rest of the country.” I do in fact hope the rest country would find that sexy!
Buckeye by birth, but BOILERMAKER by the grace of God!
I'm not familar with their non-con...
but how is 19-12 (9-9) Purdue likely whereas 19-12 (11-7) Iowa doubtful? Especially since that 11-7 would include wins over ranked IU and UW.
In this scenario…PU would finish the season without beating a single ranked team.
I think a 19-12 Iowa team is in to be honest.
Their non-conference schedule was bad though, and they did not do well either.
I believe their reasoning is that
Purdue swept Iowa and so the selection committee would never put Iowa in the dance over Purdue in the situation that they have identical W-L records. I see where Tmill is coming from but I also am unsure if the selection committee would look at it that way. On one hand you have a team who was ‘hot’ at the end of the season, has a couple wins over ranked teams, and has 11 wins in a strong conference. On the other hand you have a team who was mediocre throughout their non-con schedule and their conference schedule, has zero wins over ranked teams, and the only ‘impressive’ part of their resume is beating another bubble team twice. Again, I see where Tmill is coming from but I doubt the selection committee sees the situation the same way.
"It's an easy game, man. Easy game."
~Edgerrin James
by 87 Rides A Surfboard on Feb 13, 2012 3:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Interesting to see how it plays out
Removing my own fan bias toward Purdue, I’d probably say Iowa deserves the nod more that Purdue in the event that they close the season 6-0. If they did one of those side by side tournament resumes where you don’t know what 2 teams you’re looking at, I think Iowa would get the pick. When you throw in the little caveat that Purdue swept Iowa however, it’s not so black and white anymore. I can see some very anxious minutes or hours on selection Sunday if this scenario plays out.
/re-injecting fan bias
Purdue is going to win out from here anway, so the point is moot. Purdue runs the table to an improbable National Championship, Robbie Hummel scores 50 per game in the tournament and out of nowhere becomes the number one pick in the draft. Boom.
The intereting thing is this
In the hypothetical 6-0 Iowa runt hey would like ruin Northwestern, Illinois, and have already severely hurt the chances of Minnesota (they have two ins over Goldy)
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
So bottom line
Our most-hated rival Can SUCK IT!!!! Die Iowa and finish 2-4. Lose to all the bubblers for the good of the conf.
I'll take it
It is probably the only scenario that topples Drew Brees from his current Most Favored Alumni athlete status.
I’d also be curious to see if Robbie’s knee would then make him able to walk across the Wabash, because he would already be performing miracles.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
don't say never
the year George Mason wen to the Final Four and were the “final” team in. They swept another very good conf-mate with similar resume, Hofstra. Mason danced, Hofstra went to the NIT.
Iowa's non conference is UGLY
Trust me, I witnessed it.
Football recruiting guy for Hammer and Rails
Lead blogger for 5 other sites.
Follow the Twitter for all the details
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by HawkeyeBoiler on Feb 13, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Selection Process
I thought the committee stopped using the “last 10” a few years back, as they wanted to look at a teams complete profile. Wins in November are just as important as wins in February.
Also isn’t the RPI more a less a place holder to judge how you do against certain teams in each bracket (Top 25, 50, 100)? I didn’t think our actual RPI mattered as much as our record vs. the top 25, 50, 100.
Couple things
It’s now last 12, as they want to basically shoot for the final 1/3 of the seas. Also the info is avail to the committee, but it isn’t a “main” criteria any longer and isn’t on each selection person’s screen.
RPI is garbage in the world of metrics
I really wish they’d quit using that, as it is one of the worst predictive metrics in the prediction game, which tells me that it struggles to accurately value teams.
/end stat head rant
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Yes.
If Iowa won 6 in a row to close B1G play then a lot of the deficiencies we currently see, would be erased.
Hummel gives us the nod
Unlike most years Boilers will get the nod this year if on the bubble because of the “Hummel story”. The NCAA and the announcers will love to tell his 5 year story ad nauseam. Makes us sound a little pathetic but NCAA owes us a few
In my humble unbiased opinion
NCAA has either sent us out West instead of Chi or Indy or dropped us in our seeding many times
and we get sent to Chicago last year
only to mess ourselves against VCU worse than in 1990 at the Hoosier Dome against Texas.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
by BoilerTMill on Feb 13, 2012 10:52 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
They owe us for not giving Keith Smith a 6th year of eligibility.
by herby20 on Feb 13, 2012 7:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great write up
This is my fave feature of yours.
I hadn’t even thought about the fact that Xavier losing 3 more and playing their way out could actually help us the most, good point.
I just posted my version of projections on the Gold and Black boards.
Neither Duke or UConn
Neither Duke or Uconn looked good the last 2 years but won anyway. Gotta get really hot at the right time
UConn won the Big East tourney.
As did Duke with the ACC tourney.
B1G is going to get at least 7
very, very possibly 8 teams in. And yes, if Iowa somehow closed the season 6-0 they would be in, ever though their OOC sucked. No way a team that hot, and with an 11-7 record in the B1G would be left out. You can’t just assume Purdue would be in ahead of them on the sole fact that Purdue sweeped them.
All of that is moot however, because there’s no way I see Iowa finishing that strong. 9-9 is probably the ceiling for them.
if it's between iowa and purdue
and both are sitting with identical records (19-12, 9-9), and only one team can get a bid, i promise you that Iowa will get it. the committee has made it clear that head-to-head matchups don’t matter much, and that what they really emphasize is a team’s body of work. And in that scenario, Iowa’s body of work will be much more impressive.
I don’t think it’ll come to that though. This would require them beating IU, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern. No way they go 4-0 against those teams.
http://therailroadtie.com/
Boiler up!
Iowa's non-conference is a mess.
Clemson, UNI, Campbell. They lost to these teams.
They beat Wisky when they were in the middle of a slump. Michigan was a solid win, but if you want to talk body of work, their non-conference is an anchor.
We lost to a full-strength Bama, a (at the time) highly ranked Xavier and Butler. Butler is the sore thumb of that and its a lot better than losing to Clemson or Campbell.
Football recruiting guy for Hammer and Rails
Lead blogger for 5 other sites.
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Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/Riles23
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by HawkeyeBoiler on Feb 13, 2012 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
WIN 10 and IN
Correct: 10 B1G wins and we are in. Bank on it. (I don’t care what IOWA does)
9 B1G wins and it is a classic ‘Boilers get screwed’ scenario (Hummel or no)
8 B1G wins… meet me in NY.
Would be fun to catch tOSu on a neutral court in B1G tourney?
8-10 will get in
IF they can pick up another win in the BTT.
yet another trap game going to Champaign
This year more than any I can remember in the past, we’ve had games against teams that were “desperate” for a win. Think about it. Wisconsin comes into Mackey at like 1-4 in Big Ten play and beat us. Michigan and IU both needed a quality road win and they needed it exactly when they played us. We could not be playing Illinois at a worse time. I think they come up guns-a-blazing and take care of us not problem. I know this sounds bleak but it would sure be nice to play a team not NEEDING a win.
Illini borderline
Illini borderline quitting on coach. Need to come out strong, get a lead, get whinee center in foul trouble
Hopefully this
I haven’t gotten the impression this is an extremely tough Illini team, so hopefully they will be quitting as opposed to gathering back together to finish strong.
Either way we just have to keep up the intensity and have Carrol/Lawson/Chooch play big again to slow down Leonard and keep Paul or BOMAFUWFWLOFST from going off and we will have a good chance.
Good point
Reminds me of when Calhoun was called out for yet another case of cheateing right before we played UConn in the tournament. I felt the same after hearing of the no confidence vote for Bruce.
by SmallMarketBigPlays on Feb 13, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
I think Purdue loses this game, wins their other two must wins at home, and loses the rest to finish at 8-10.
I still think that will get Purdue in the tourney around a 12 seed. Could even be in one of those dreaded play-in Tuesday games.
Joe Lunardi thinks tomorrow's game is a winner takes all for on the bubble/safely in conversation
-Contributing Writer at The Crimson Quarry.
Guess I'll Be a Contrarian
Actually like our chances better against MSU than IL this week. I do NOT believe that the Illini have quit on Weber based on watching the IL-MI game this weekend and after the “Brandon Dawson” episode toward the end of the game at Breslin; I think that the Boilers will be plenty motivated this weekend.
by Danwesley Meyer on Feb 14, 2012 8:47 AM EST reply actions
I'll be greedy then
Let’s just take both to be sure.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
Yup
We can just win the rest of our games and the big ten tournament and then we don’t have to worry. Ok, so I’d be shocked if that best case scenario actually happens, but to be honest, I don’t like our chances at 8-10. I think we definitely need to win one of the next two, but both would end any insecurities about making the postseason once and for all. I like our chances better at Illinois than home against Michigan State if I had to pick one. Let’s beat Illinois tomorrow and I’ll feel much better.
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