With the regular season starting tomorrow, here's a quantitative measure of the expectation among fans from the end of last season to the beginning of this season, based on the statistical summary of the Boiler Basketball Forecast.
Overall, there are 17 entries in March, and 24 in October (before the exhibition games).
1. Average expected win goes down slightly from 22.4 to 21.8 from March to October.
2. Average B1G finish goes down from 4.6 to 5.6.
3. In both instances, the variances drop too, meaning fans as a whole grow not only less optimistic, but also converging to a tighter range.
4. Average FT% for the team: 64.8%
5. 76% of folks expected a redshirt in Mar, only 54% in Oct. Looks like the majority is wrong this time though.
6. About 1/3 of us expect a transfer/dismissal this season, and that's been constant.
7. RayD was expected to be the most productive frosh (in Mar), but since then Hale took over, followed by RayD and RJ.
8. In Mar, Hale led with 4 votes to be the breakout player while aj/RayD each had 3; in Oct, it is aj/RayD with 7 votes each and Hale with 5.
9. The expected top scorers were TJ-DJ-aj (Mar), but in TJ-DJ-RayD (Oct). Interestingly, the gap between TJ and DJ shrinks a lot between Mar and Oct.
10. Hale-Sandi-AJH figured to be the top rebounders, and they were close. In Mar, AJH came out on top, but in Oct it is Hale, with the other two a close second/third.
11. In Mar, only 24% believe RJ will have a better season than LewJack's junior year, but 58% says so in Oct.
12. The consensus lineup is pretty much RJ-TJ-DJ-Hale, and either Sandi or AJH. Most say Sandi tomorrow and AJH by the end of season.
Thank you for your input.
(P.S. I've been using the convention aj=lil AJ, and AJH = Big AJ)
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