Two questions re: the next 5 games
by charlespig on Jan 18, 2012 12:08 AM EST
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I agree with the coaches, the players should focus on the very next game only. One game at a time. But we are fans, and it's our nature to look ahead (hey, we are looking at 2013 and 2014 already).
So with that said, I wonder 1) what is the current expectation for our next 5 games (@MSU, Mich, @NW, IU, @O$U)?
2) Will you be happier if we are 1-4 (with the win over IU), or 2-3 (with the win over Mich and NW)?
I just can't see us winning @MSU (and have them drop 3 games in a row) or @OSU. I will be ecstatic if we can go 3-2, but if I were to bet I'll put the most money in 2-3. (My probability is 0.5% 5-0, 0.5% 4-1, 10% 3-2, 50% 2-3 and 39% 1-4)
And for me, I always go for wins, so I'll be happier to be 2-3.
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I'm saying 1-4
Maybe 0-5. I just don’t see us winning any game other than Northwestern. Call me a doubter, but until i see some consistency, i’m very timid with my picks.
3-2 I just hope it's not February 3-2 and then do nothing in March
Meaning if we do play this stretch well I hope we play well in the tourney too. I think we’ll give IU a run as well as the 2 Michigan schools but I think OSU will out quick us and we might stumble at Northwestern. So beat MSU, Michigan, and IU and lose to OSU and Northwestern just b/c this team is such a roller-coaster.
Could go anywhere from 5-0 or 0-5
Honestly. I wouldn’t put any money on any B10 game this year. Poor choices.
1.) I’ll say 3-2 with us winning at n’western and home games.
2.) I am one of those people who takes great joy in beating indiana. If that was our only win over the next 5, I would be OK with that although I would be super pissed to lose at home again. Home losses aggrevate me to no end.
I'm leaning this way as well
But I wouldn’t be shocked to lose at home to Michigan or IU, just hopefully not IU, it will be hard enough to win there this year as it is.
by BoilerGOZ on Jan 18, 2012 9:32 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
3-2
I am calling for a surprisingly close game @MSU but eventually falling short.
Wining in the last minute of the Michigan game at home.
Come from behind win @NW with barlow scoring 21 (18 in the 2nd half).
Feeding off the hate that spills out from the stands and beat IU.
Another 20 point blow out at OSU.
I am awful at predicting but that’s my 2 cents
by BoilermakerAustin on Jan 18, 2012 8:13 AM EST reply actions
wow vey specific
I’m revisiting this post in a few weeks.
by BoilerGOZ on Jan 18, 2012 9:33 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
2-3
I think we will have a rough go of it at northwestern. It seems like we always struggle up there. The zone d that they plays gives us fits.
I hope the paint crew brings back the black gloves for the IU game. That was really cool and really loud last year when they did it against O$U last year.
I am sure as I am saying it now I'll jinx it
Some has called us maddeningly inconsistent this year. For the last 5 games we were W-L-W-L-W. It seems like we have a real shot to continue the trend with L-W-L-W-L for the next 5, with all the losses on the road. That would make it 10 straight games where we don’t have consecutive wins or losses. That seems to describe our season well.
I'm one of those people
But as I read your comment, I realize we’re consistently inconsistent. I’d take my lumps and deal with L-W-L-W-L.
by AAMB Boiler on Jan 18, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
can't argue much with this
It’s be nice to slip a W between the two on your list. I’m optimistic about us @ NW if we can keep from looking forward to IU.
by BoilerGOZ on Jan 18, 2012 9:36 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Northwestern
They’re no cake walk with that 1-3-1 zone. I go every year and they have lost 3-4 times I’ve been (they didn’t play there last year). And the time they won JJ banked in a free throw with 2 seconds left. If they don’t stop the back cuts and can’t hit from the outside, it will be an L. Winning on the road is tough in the B1G. I’ll be happy with 3-2,but 1-5 seems more likely. Michigan at home is a must win.
by boilerbacker31 on Jan 18, 2012 10:00 AM EST reply actions
If the last 2 weeks have taught us anything...
It’s that any team in the B1G can winn on any given night, on any given floor. Home court advantage seems to mean a little less than it used to, and upsets are running rampant. Maybe Purdue pulls some big upsets and goes 4-1, or even 5-0! Equally likely is 1-4 or 0-5 unfortunately, that’s just how tight the teams in the conference are. My % would be :
0-5: 16.66%
1-4: 16.66%
2-3: 16.68%
3-2: 16.68%
4-1: 16.66%
5-0: 16.66%
Yes and no
Yes, any B1G team can beat any other on any given night (just look at us blowing out the conf leading Ill and get blown away by the conf bottom PSU and it says it all).
No, I think home court matters A LOT. The losses for OSU and MSU all come on the road. Ill’s only loss come on the road. Mich’s two losses all come on the road. These are the TOP teams in the conference, which just shows how difficult it is to win on the road in the B1G this year.
But thank you for your precision :-)
Precision
Did you note the extra .02% on the middle two options? I didn’t want to leave .04% unaccounted for, I can’t imagine the flack I would take for such an egregious error from a board full of Purdue alumni. We hold ourselves to higher standards here.
On a side note, it was very tempting to assign the .04% to Hightower being awarded a victory in lieu of either team, since his refereeing was so mind blowingly shitty great that the outcome of the game was deemed insignificant. I want everyone to know that I took the high road instead.
LOL
For the record, yes, I noticed the extra .02% b/c I made sure they added up to 100% :-)
Me too
I happen to remember a bunch of repeating fractions.
I’m surprised HTML doesn’t have an upperscore actually so we can indicate the repeating fraction.
by Beavis Beefcake on Jan 18, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
You mean the repeating decimal
Fractions (or odds in this case) would have avoided the issue all together.
Reaction images? I got 'em
Senior All-American Alto Sax
Correct me if I am wrong
But weren’t we the last team to win at OSU?
Correct me if I am wrong too
If we lose to o$u, doesn’t that take away our ability to say that we have a winning record against every team in the big ten? I’ve always been proud of that statistic.
You are correct
We would then be tied with them.
if Illinois can beat OSU
I don’t know why we absolutely can’t. Don’t think we will, but don’t lose hope.
by BoilerGOZ on Jan 18, 2012 9:40 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Oh I believe we "can", but won't
One thing I learn from bball is that you HAVE TO believe you CAN win. It doesn’t matter how big of an underdog you are. You HAVE TO believe in your guts that if everything goes right there is a chance that we CAN win. If you don’t believe that, the game is lost already.
But that’s for players. I am not playing the game – I am just a fan.
Notice though, O$U has not been beaten at home, which is where we are playing at. Even last year’s team with JJ and E’Twaun lay an egg there. Another thing, we don’t have a guy like Paul who can hit 43. Heck, I don’t think we’ll have TWO players to combine for more than 43. To pull an upset, you kinda need someone to go unconscious shooting light out to give your team a chance.
Robbie definitely can.
Brandon Paul was only averaging 7 or 8 points a game when he shot that many. Hummel has gone off on insane shooting sprees before (even against the mentioned team). I don’t think we will beat them either though. If it was at home, maybe. It took arguably the greatest Purdue team since Wooden was here to win in the Schott over a good Buckeye team.
Nope
Robbie is not the “create his own shots” kind of lights-out shooter. Sure, he can shoot light-out – we saw that in the first half of the O$U game in his junior year where he made 8 threes in a half, but he did it when he wasn’t the first option and he took wide-open shots. With the way defense is gonna key on him since he is the main threat, he won’t be able to shoot like Paul, nor do we want him to. Some of Paul’s shots are tightly contested and really bad shots IMO that just happened to fall. Robbie is a much smarter and less selfish player that he would want to pass it around and got his team a better quality shot, hence you won’t see 43 pts. Heck, I don’t think ANY Purdue player this year will score more than 30 in ANY game.
Actually, other than one shot-clock beater, almost all of Paul's shots that night came out of Illinois' offense.
which is unusual for him, as he tends to be the lone gunman type normally. On that night, though, he was playing within the system.
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Jan 19, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
haha.
Have you paid any attention to how OSU has been playing at home. They aren’t just winning. They are destroying everyone who walks in there.
I just hope we put up a fight
Don’t just roll over. Play as if we get nothing to lose. Play without regard of the scoreboard. If we lose, fine, but don’t let anyone say we don’t play hard. We may not be as talented as them, but don’t let them outwork us or outhustle us, that is sth I cannot accept.
I'm waffling between 3-2 and 2-3
I think we lose at MSU and at OSU, possibly in blowouts.
I think we win vs IU with our defense pressuring them into turnovers and by not allowing Zeller to get the ball.
I think we have a decent chance UM. I think if they win at Arkansas we have a much better chance than if they lose. I’m afraid Smotrycz will go off because he’s a big goofy white kid who can hit 3s.
I’m unsure of the game at NW. More often than not they give us trouble on the road. And with our trouble against big goofy white kids… and NW being full of big goofy white kids, it could be trouble.
I guess I’d say
0% 5-0
3% 4-1
35% 3-2
40% 2-3
17% 1-4
5% 0-5
I honestly think
we’ll do just fine at MSU. OSU I’m less convinced about, but I think at MSU will at the very least be close. It’s not like they’re Penn State or anything.
2-3 but might be 1-4.
This years IU game is going to be last years O$U’s game. I think everyone is going to be so pumped that it might be a killing. [hopefully of IU]
The other game win would be Northwestern but we’ve lost lately up there due to their zone.
O$U is an auto lose.
UM will be close, but probably a loss. Good guards have cut us up this year. I can see Burke and Hardaway Jr. killing us. Lewjack is too short and hurt to keep up & Kenny seems more focused on offense.
MSU … If we can contain Appling, could be close but probably not. I think they are going to be pissed from the UM game so don’t expect much overlook from them.
Here's my probabilities
.6 for iu, UM and NU.
.1 for @OSU, @MSU
Expected wins = 2
5.184% 0 wins
24.48% 1 win
40.24% 2 wins
25.56% 3 wins
4.32% 4 wins
.216% 5 wins
Yeah, I have a program for that. Yeah, it’s in Perl. Yeah, I’ll be reusing it if this sort of topic comes up again.
by Beavis Beefcake on Jan 18, 2012 4:04 PM EST reply actions
This is what I get for writing for a program with a bunch of math nerds
I have no idea what Perl is.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
It's the source of all that is good in the universe of coding. And no, I don't know how to use it.
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Jan 18, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I'm nothing compared to some.
There are people who can put my coding skills to shame easily. I google their stuff (usually written 8 years ago) daily and rip it off to do what I need to do for my job, or for my own little experiments, probably missing some big general point.
Heavy duty folks play “code golf” to write up a program with the smallest number of characters.
For anyone REALLY curious, activestate.perl.com has a windows runtime to install. Save the code below to probs.pl then run probs.pl .6,.6,.6,.1,.1,.1 … this could be done with spreadsheets too but you had to figure an Engineering school would get someone who did this (even though I was only born in WL, I still remember the wind tunnel and the math library…)
by Beavis Beefcake on Jan 18, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Once again...
I was a COMMUNICATIONS major.
math beyond Algebra is a mystery to me, though I did get an A in Calculus in high school.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
A in calculus is darn good
Don’t let anyone say otherwise.
Hopefully it doesn’t feel like I’m pushing this on you. Part of me is generally surprised at how English-like software programming can be. It’s actually good for business and productivity in some cases. I could go into a long spiel about how even as a math person I was scared of computer code, but that’s another story. You might be surprised at how much programming languages have bent to the need to be easily communicated, because people get frustrated at them, or the lack of comments.
Plus, I figured I’d share with anyone involved. Just in case they were interested or wanted to try fun stuff in the future.
But yeah, anyway, back to basketball.
by Beavis Beefcake on Jan 18, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
It's all good
I was actually quite a science and math whiz growing up, but I always wanted to be involved in sports in some way, so I aimed toward English and broadcasting. I also did it because people said it was my weakness and I wanted to make it a strength.
A futile crusade to prevent mass ignorance
HammerAndRails, SBNation's Boilermaker Blog
omg holy war time!
Err, actually, I’ve never read a line of python. Any suggestions where to start? I’m interested.
by Beavis Beefcake on Jan 18, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
I learned it at Purdue in ECE 364
So I don’t know any introductions on the web that are good. It’s pretty easy to learn though.
You could try this: http://www.rexx.com/~dkuhlman/python_101/python_101.html
Two xkcd comics in a thread? Yes please!
"Hey Jay, what time is it?"
"9:30"
"AND IU STILL SUCKS!"
by Boiler Bandsman on Jan 19, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Oh the horror.
“hello, world” a two word phrase etched in the memory of anyone unfortunate enough to slog through a programming class taught by Crum, and his god awful exams. I can see the nightmarish visions of that phrase repeating over and over in an infinite loop.
If this thread weren't civil we could have 3
“Duty Calls” tends to work in many settings, you know.
by Beavis Beefcake on Jan 19, 2012 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
For Completeness sake... and to illustrate a small point about statistics
1 WIN: 1 Home = 23.3% ; 1 Away = 1.1%
2 WIN: 2 Home = 35% ; 1 Home, 1 Away = 5.1% ; 2 Away = 0.06%
3 WIN: 3 Home = 17.4% ; 2 Home, 1 Away = 7.8% ; 2 Away, 1 Home = 0.2%
4 WIN: 3 Home, 1 Away = 3.9% ; 2 Home, 2 Away = 0.4%
5 WIN: 3 Home, 2 Away = 0.2%
The breakdown shows that we are statistically more likely to win 2 home and 2 away than only 2 away. This might seem counter-intuitive, since 2 wins seem like they would always be easier to come by than 4. And on the whole, this is true.
BUT, if we do manage to with the two road games, it is more likely that we should be able to pick up one or more home games rather than only being able to win on the road. In real life, a team that can win on the road is a good team, and should win a lot at home.
If Beavis had chosen different probabilities, this wouldn’t have been the case. Since it is logically consistent, this is at least a face validation of the values he picked.
P.S. – Beavis, I’ve never tried programming, so I ran these by hand. Your method seems much more efficient. And for what it’s worth, I say 3 wins.
I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more Purdue basketball
Sorry, pls redo your work
We have 3 road games, @MSU, @NW and @OSU sandwiching the two home games Mich and IU.
Eh I think we could go 3-2
The away games will be losses. IU doesn’t seem to have the hang of playing away yet, Michigan will be tough, and NW will probably be closer than it should.
2-3
is most likely. 0-5, 1-4, and 3-2 is also a possibility.
The chances of winning @ OSU is next to nothing. The chance winning @ MSU is only slightly better. IMO both of those teams will be undefeated at home the entire season.
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