FanPost

Simulating the Big Ten Tournament

I wrote a little program to use Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free stats to simulate the outcome of the Big Ten tournament.  If you're interested, the results are after the jump.

OK, I redid this after all the games ended on Sunday.  I also ran 10000 simulations, and here's what I got. The columns here show how many times each team (1) won it all, (2) made it to the final game, and (3) made it to the semifinals.

 

			Champ		Final		Semi		Quarter
Ohio State 3896 5711 7732 10000
Purdue 1891 4190 6966 10000
Wisconsin 1399 3354 6987 10000
Michigan 583 1277 4381 10000
Illinois 1001 1904 5619 10000
Penn State 197 725 1978 6123
Michigan State 293 923 1928 6034
Northwestern 128 326 800 4441
Minnesota 394 782 1468 5559
Iowa 141 501 1106 3966
Indiana 77 307 1035 3877

According to the simulations, OSU is far more likely to win than anyone else--more than twice as likely to win as the 2 seed, Purdue.  Illinois looks a good sight better than the higher-seeded Michigan.  There's an 87.7% chance that one of the 5 teams with a bye will win.  Among the teams who have to play on Thursday, these simulations say that Minnesota has the best chance to win it all.  This seems surprising, and may be a problem with the numbers I'm using--namely, they don't account for all the players that Minnesota has lost.  I wonder if Michigan & Michigan State might not be tougher outs than these numbers suggest.  In general, though, I think these numbers largely accord with my intuitions about the relative strength of the B10 teams. 

Now for some more Purdue-centric results.  According to the simulation, here are the probabilities for all possible outcomes for the Boilers:

 

Lose in quarterfinals	30.3%
Lose in semifinals 27.8%
Lose in finals 23.0%
Win it all 18.9%

We can break these down further.

RECORD IN QUARTERFINALS
Gms Record Win%
Michigan State 6034 4106-1928 68.0
Iowa 3966 2860-1106 72.1
-------------------------------------------------------------
10000 6966-3034 69.7

RECORD IN SEMIFINALS
Gms Record Win%
Wisconsin 4842 2714-2128 56.1
Penn State 1376 922-454 67.0
Indiana 748 554-196 74.1
-------------------------------------------------------------
6966 4190-2778 60.1

RECORD IN FINALS
Gms Record Win%
Ohio State 2378 862-1516 36.2
Illinois 795 422-373 53.1
Michigan 526 320-206 60.8
Minnesota 361 200-161 55.4
Northwestern 130 87-43 66.9
-------------------------------------------------------------
4190 1891-2299 45.1

Surprisingly, these numbers suggest that Illinois and Minnesota are both tougher matchups for us than Wisconsin is.  Perhaps a large sample size (especially against Minnesota) would smooth that out, but it's still notable.  

Stuff in the FanPosts is entirely at the discretion of those that post them. They do not represent the views of Hammer & Rails, SBNation, or Purdue University in any way.

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