Moving Forward

One of those three has to become a Big 10 caliber Center. If none of them can, we’ll be sitting in the same position we were this year with issues down low, but without a 6’10 All American. It could get ugly fast.

Unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of faith in those three. Bade is a lost cause. Marcius seems like he still makes a bunch of dumb mistakes, and Carroll has bad hands down low. It’s going to be a rough year next year.

I think our only real hope is that Hale and Lawson come in ready to play. If we had one of them and Hummel down low, we may give up some height, but if both can be offensive threats, that should negate the height disadvantage by forcing people to guard both of them (instead of the constant double-teams JJ got).

I’m putting any hope I have left in those two, along with Hummel being healthy all year. If they aren’t ready to go (which wouldn’t necessarily be their fault as freshmen) then I think we struggle all year because none of the other 3 big men are good enough to start (or really even play consistently without a lot of improvement).

But putting a lot of stock & I mean a lot that Rob comes back healthy. I think next 2 years we scrapp to just make the tournament. However, I have lot of faith in coach Painter and is probably our biggest assett. We need to either get that assistant coach back or cut bait and sign on a new one. Assistants are who develop the initial relationships with the recruits.

is boiled up Boilermaker basketball frustration from like the 1980’s. We will be fine, we will regroup, this is what we do.

It’s like when a tornado wipes out some town and everyone congregates at the last building left standing. This is where the regrouping begins.

I could live with getting beat by Duke last year, they were the better team and we fought to the end. I was okay with the UCONN loss, they were better (although not sure how many were eligible). I was even okay with the Xavier loss as we were not quite ready physically. However, this was the year and we got thumped and it looked like to me we didnt give our best effort, that is what hurts.

…which is why I personally love this blog so very much.

We lost to a good team that can make a deep run. No shame in that. I fully expect VCU to make the E8 at least.

We bid farewell to a duo that won over 100 games in a four year span and 2 league titles, (1 conference, 1 regular season). I’ll take that.

We were contending for our 3rd straight Sweet 16 appearance and have won 30-some-odd straight opening round games. I’ll take that as well. Few programs can boast that.

If this is what we endure to enjoy brighter days, I’ll take it. I’d rather be alone in my infamous Row Boat of Optimism when others have bailed than hop off when the going gets rough. It simply makes the success all the more succulent.
So…here I am in my row boat. Anyone going to help me get to shore?

Examining the weaknesses of Moore and JJ: Moore could be stopped by a bigger and faster guard. JJ had bad hands, could get pushed around physically, wasn’t strong in the paint, and was basically told not to be physical in the post or foul anyone. This isn’t really a knock against JJ, just an observation that JJ was NOT a center, he was just a big guy with length in the post who could block and get vertical but had nights like yesterday when he simply didn’t. While JJ could get there, neither of them were very vocal leaders and didn’t give the team that IT factor.

If that sounds disrespectful of JJ and Moore, I don’t mean it in that way. But if Hummel is playing at 100%, we could do some good things next year, possibly go deeper in the tournament. Leadership is the biggest X factor that this team lacked all season. Hummel and LewJack will fill the void left behind by JJ and Moore, and it will be a totally different dynamic. Where JJ and Moore were mostly quiet types, I can see this team being more emotional (in a good way).

Painter needs to work on his bigs next year. He’s going to have tons of help with guard play and he has plenty of forwards, if inexperienced/untalented forwards.

Guards: TJ, Smith, Barlow, AJ, LewJack, Hart
LewJack will start almost definitely. He’s our PG and when he’s on, he’s good. His big weakness other than size though is that he doesn’t usually get steals. Other than that, I think you’ll see guys fighting for minutes, which could be good or bad for team chemistry, especially since IMO TJ and AJ are probably the most talented. My raw guess is Barlow will continue to sub for LewJack at 1, AJ will play behind TJ at 2(unless AJ is really that good), and Smith will somehow get minutes at 2 or play as a 3rd guard, depending on if the team is playing big or small. Smith really needs to develop more of a game, his lateral quickness is questionable and he doesn’t drive or make great assists. I’d like to see him get more steals. I’m hoping playing with Hummel will do that. Hart probably won’t play.

Defensively, I’d play Byrd and Barlow. Byrd plays pretty smart but unfortunately was put in the 4 slot to defend the post and that isn’t where he should play, he’s a 2/3. Barlow – I hope Barlow gets his shit together and comes back a better man and player.

Forwards: Hummel, Hale, Lawson, Byrd (as a G/F).
Hale/Lawson will see backup minutes in all likelihood behind Hummel. I could see us mostly play with three guards and two forwards, but I like the idea of a 2 guard 3 forward lineup, with Lawson at the three with Byrd.

F playing the post: Carroll, Bade.
Only Carroll will get any time here. Bade probably will come in only when Carroll gets in foul trouble. And even so I’d see Byrd playing in Bade’s place guarding bigger guys. It’s too bad really, Byrd shouldn’t have to play out of position next year.

C: Marcius. Sorry but Bade and Carroll are not true centers in any way. Only Marcius has the length. And guess what, he sucks. He has to come a long way to be anything but a benchwarmer.

Big questions I still have for next year:
Weakness at the post – Need Marcius to really play next year. If you think he should start, he needs to start against the cupcakes, get a lot of minutes and foul out or whatever, and learn how to play. The minutes I’ve seen of Carroll make me think he’ll be very good as a post player in two years, but next year is going to be a real question for me. And let’s face it Carroll is not a center by any stretch. He’d need 2 inches and more length, and he doesn’t have it.

Rebounding – Hummel will help, Carroll will help, but we need rebounding to be much better. Rebounding is NOT all about size, it’s about strength and position. Offensive rebounding will be more important than defensive. We will struggle here because we are small and aren’t quick enough to the ball.

Defense – I think we’ll be much deeper than we were at the end of the year. Defense might have just been fatigue factor, don’t know. I think we’ll have to play much tougher down low against bigger opponents, get turnovers/rebounds, and be passionate at that end.

Offense – This might be a bright spot. Between Hummel, Smith, Byrd, LewJack, and TJ, we have five guys that can shoot the 3. Hummel and LewJack can drive inside and spot up from anywhere, Carroll has a nice 15 footer, Byrd has shown an ability now to spot up for 2s. We have some guys we haven’t seen yet, like Hale AJ and Lawson, who are unknowns, but can play backup if needed.

Intangibles: Coaching, Skills

Painter needs to teach zone and improve the pressing game. I will say this forever because I really believe he needs that as a tool in his toolbelt. I don’t think any college coach is complete without having a team that can play zone D. Teaching the press will also help the team defend the press. He also needs to at least practice some inbounds drills, and get his team to smell blood in the water and attack late in games. We let teams stay with us too long by slowing down offensively late. Playing tentatively on offense with 9 minutes left in the 2nd half is a loser’s game. OSU continued to jack 3s against GMU up 35. I actually have no problem with this.

Skillset wise: We still don’t turn the ball over, we still fight hard for loose balls. I’d like to see Barlow and Byrd, one of them, take over the mantle for steals. I wish LewJack would become better at anticipating and stealing because of his quickness but I don’t think that’ll happen. He’s our PG and like JJ if he fouls out we’ll be in trouble. Less of a factor next year but still a factor.

Wow. That turned into a long post.

Even when you have a coach who has won 3 BTCOY in 4 years, you still have a bunch of people saying how horrible a coach Painter is. There is always excuses: 1) he only has one good recruiting class; 2) he is too stubborn to stick to man-to-man only; 3) he didn’t make adjustments in the VCU game. Geez, for crying out loud, can’t people just be grateful that we have Painter and not someone like uhhh, say, Kevin Sampson? Winning 3 COYs is a huge recognition (especially from the coaches) of the job that Painter has done. I guess the enemy has more respect to Painter than many of our “fans,” and I really don’t mind seeing these “fans” go.

I’m a realist and I know next year we may not be as good as this year’s team. But that’s fine. I think Purdue plays best when everyone is doubting them. We just aren’t too good in handling lofty expectations. We are better as the underdog. It’s probably a psychological thing. When you feel like being the underdog, you know you have to work extra hard and that’s what makes us great.

Overall, I remain supportive to the team, always. It’s like your kid – no matter how much he may disappoint, you still love him regardless, and support him and encourage him to work harder and keep it up. I am thankful and grateful to JJ and E’Twaun for what how they’ve represented us in the last 4 years.

Looking forward to next season!

After last season, we could look forward to this season and pretty much knew what we were getting and had a ton of reason to be excited. It even made football season more bearable because we knew that we had this to look forward to.

This is a bit different. Even though I’m really confident in next year’s group, there are question marks. I’m excited to see those questions be answered but since it’s unknown, waiting is even harder.

on nearly everyting…. need to find out who staying & who going… including Jackson the assistant coach. I would have a hard time seeing Barlow come back looking his teammates in the eye, especially Rob and LewJack. I also dont see how Bade will think he is going to get any playing time. Unfortunately, we know what he is and Lawson and Hale will get minutes there to develop. I dont know what think of Sandi, hoping he develops into a Scheffler but really not seeing it.

If we are going to play Byrd down loan giving up 4 inches we should have had a zone D to fall over to. If anything just to give their offense a different look now and again….

I know it’s manly to play man to man but it also at one point in time was manly to walk directly to your opponent in a war……. would love to see us be able to change our D just when they think they have us figured out…

Similar perspective as ours. Strange he also hints that something has been wrong since the Iowa game.

http://www.indystar.com/article/20110321/SPORTS15/103210332/?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CIndyStar.com%7Cp

“It is difficult because I honestly believed, until last night, that we were going to win the National Championship.”

“The hardest time to believe is right now, but I believe we can still achieve a Final Four next season.”

“I think next year will be better than this year. "

Wow, I guess no one could pin you guys for being pessimistic fans. Some might say these comments are taking optimism to another level (delusion?), but I give you props for sticking in there.

FWIW, I believe the team I saw last night – outside of JJ and Moore – had worse talent than VCU. And that’s a problem going into next year.

Looking at what we could have next year, I can see the team getting back to basics. By this, I mean that I expect next years team to be one of the most fundamental teams you’ll see in college basketball. Coach Painter WILL make this Purdue team thrive on defense. Without athletic superstars such as JJ and Smooge, I think we’ll be a blue collar team.

The developement of our bigs will be crucial. Here’s what I think needs to happen.

Carroll and Marcius- Improve strength, athleticism, and a little higher basketball IQ. If they get better like I expect them to, I think they could be like Kilicli from West Virginia.

Bade- I know a lot of us our down on Bade, but I believe he could be a good player. He’s got the athleticness that I wish Carroll and Marcius had, but it seems like his work ethic and/or confidence was not present at all.

woulda coulda shoulda. no knock on painter for recruiting, because if we still had martin and a healthy hummel this class was definitely good enough to win it all. my concern is that painter ends up like keady. 25 years. big ten titles. conference tournament wins. but no final 4s or national championships. it seems to me that until we can sign the likes of branden dawson and amir williams we are going to continue to be “the little engine that could”. if we had talent level like MSU or O$U we would have williams, hummel, and dawson up front to go with a solid backcourt. in which case we would have great optimism for next year. as it stands we continue to struggle to recruit the elite players, particularly talented bigs.

Lawson averages 12-15 boards his whole HS career and an astonishing 7 blocks a game his entire career, more than 500 blocks in high school. and 10 or so points.
But torn achilles is tough to recover from. would be our best athlete on the floor by far if can stay away from fouls.
Barlow better be off team….opens scholly doesn’t it???

This one’s gonna stick a while (like forever). I’ve been a oiler basketball fan for a long time and I can honestly say, this is THE most dissappointing loss ever. Ten years from now, when JJ and Smooge’s names come up, you’ll think about all they did for this program. How they were part of a special class that brought us back. You’ll wonder “what if” Hummel had stayed healthy? And then you’ll remember, “but boy, did they ever mail it in down the stretch” You’re a liar if you say you won’t. Before I express my thoughts on the future, I would like to say that I am not jumping ship or quitting on the team. I will pull for this team till I’m six feet under. Stating concerns or areas for improvement, is not being negative. I am of the mind that a true fan speaks up when he/she sees where things could be better. I mean, I thought that’s what these sites were for. To offer differing opinions. I get just as frustrated with fans that bury their head in the sand to our weaknesses and perpetuate unrealistic expectations as I’m sure some will when I question our direction or effort. But there is one thing I do know. We both care, a lot. As for what’s next? Hold on to your shorts gang, it’s going to be a bumpy ride down. I’m not going to harp on this because at this point it is spilt milk but, for 4 years after 2007, CMP simply did not recruit at the level necessary to keep this a top 20 program. We will start to feel the effects of that next year and it will get worse the following year. Here’s what your pinning your hopes on: Robbie-coming off two straight ACLs he’s supposed to walk on the floor and average 16/8. Right. Carroll-maybe by his senior year, at best a back up PF. Barlow-Loose canon on and off the floor, does more harm than good. Smith-the definition of a streak shooter. Nice compliment at times but you can’t count on him. T Johnson-I don’t see where all the love comes from. CMP’s only top 50 recruit in four years, I expected much more that 5 ppg and 35% shooting. If you want I can list all the freshman in the B10 outperforming him, but I warn you, it’s a long list. Lewjack-probably our best known entity coming into next year. That alone should tell you all you need to know. Bade/Marcuis- not now or ever will be D1 players. Byrd- give him somewhat of a pass cuz he’s playing out of position but generally inconsistent and didn’t take a significant step from FR to So. year. AJ/Lawson/Hale- what can you really count on here? Given the performance of our FR classes since 2007, realistically, not much. Hart- no comment. Bottom line, there’s just not much talent here guys. Having said all this, we could out perform expectations because of one constant, Matt Painter. Despite yesterdays debacle, I still believe he is one of the brightest coaches in the college game. He will get everything there is to give out of the next few years teams. And I do agree that 2013 or 2014 we will be dangerous again as the talent starts to equal the instruction again. I just hope he can keep the pipeline going this time. I still believe someday it’ll happen, but I’m not delusional enough to think it’s going be the next couple years.

Purdue Pharmacy must be out of stupid pills. I can’t believe people are creating accounts and taking the time to type out some of these thoughts

I’ve always had this hunch, ever since Robbie’s 8 three-pointers in a half game against OSU… but my hunch is that one of these times we’ll make it to the final four or championship (ie the college bball promised land) and he’ll do something just like that, dagger a team with 3’s until they break and everyone will say what they always do “what a great player”

Well, there’s only one more time that could happen, so next year will be special.

Those of you calling for a zone or any other defense can stop dreaming. IMO Painter is not going to deviate one inch from defensive philosophy and really, our identity. In his mind even considering another scheme shows a lack of 100% belief in our special brand of MTM. This is all we have done for almost 30 years and it’s not going to change because of one game. Yesterday was a perfect storm that exposed us like I’ve never seen. We were slow and discouraged. They had the perfect blend of attack and athletes to make us look silly. Quick PGs that can get a shoulder on Lewjack give us fits. The Anderson kid for Richmond did the same thing. He just shot more than passed. When JJ helped off his man, nobody rotated to help. We also didn’t start switching screens until it was too late (which is on Painter). I really think, defensively, yesterday was an abberation. I personally think it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to have a couple of different looks to give teams, I just don;t think Painter will ever do it..

Danulas on a previous post is feeling me here, and I respectfully disagree 100% with Hummel’s figurines. Don’t get me wrong, I love our aggressive, in-your-face perimeter defense, I think it should be our primary defense and I think Matt Painter is one of the best coaches around. However, I think that this VCU game reminds us that winning and losing in basketball is decided largely by how teams matchup against each other.

I hope this game convinces Painter to practice and utilize one alternative defense in the right situations. Shy of cloning Chris Kramer and keeping him between the ages of 18-22 forever, we will be beaten with regularity by teams with great guard play and/or teams that run a Princeton offense. Even had Moore and Johnson played exceptional last night, we still would have lost. Would it have been due to having less talent than VCU? No. It simply came down to x’s and o’s, and VCU had a counter for our on-ball pressure.

If Barlow does not play next year, we simply don’t have the personnel to play our current defensive style well against anyone, let alone teams with questionable guard play. Our only good perimeter defender is Jackson. We need to either develop a zone defense or a sagged man that we can utilize against teams with great guard play.

To counter Hummel’s figurines theory that last night was an abberation is simply inaccurate. If you look back at our losses over the last two years, they are all teams with elite guard play (or that had great guard play before injuries/transfers, etc.) or played a Princeton offense. Our W/L record against teams that fit this profile is about .500. I don’t think losing half your games to teams with great guard play is an abberation, it’s a trend.

If you go back a actually read my previous post, you will see that I agree, having a few more alternative defenses in your portfolio would be a good thing. My point is that IMO, Painter will not deviate from his MTM philosophy. But as long as we’ve started the discussion, I’ll play devil’s advocate. What is the first thing you think of when you think Purdue Basketball? I don’t anyone would disagree it is Defense. That reputation was built on a strict, in your face, pressure MTM defense that frustrated opponents and won the Boilers a lot of games over the years. This year we were ranked 7th nationally in defensive efficiency by Kenpom (without Kramer). We have signs all over Mackey that reference one word….Defense. Also, it is also not accurate to imply that there is no flexibility in the MTM defense. How you handle screens, rotations, sagging are just some variations taht can be applied. (Side note: This is where I fault Painter for Sunday. He didn’t even make those adjustments). What happened to us defensively Sunday was a combination of a motivated team playing on all cylinders that matched up extremely well with us, and a lethargic, uninspired effort on our part. Throw in Matt’s inability to stop the bleeding and….viola! 94 points.Trust me, it will be back to basics next year.

I would have to think we get a FF if not a championship out of this clas. When we get Alex Foster, not if… when. Then we have a top 5 class, maybe even number 1. Basil is a coaches son so you know he is going to get better and has a high chance of Mcdonalds all american. We will have a true point in Scott and Stephens shooting it from long range. If someone happens to miss then we have foster to clean it up. I would be suprised if 2014 or 2015 season didnt produce a FF.

The first two banners were when the NIT was a bigger deal….

Also, Hale is the real deal. I have watched him live many times in AAU and high school. He isn’t going to a Player of Year canidate but by his Junior year I expect 1st team Big Team. He has the potential to be Hummel.