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Know Thy 2011 NCAA Tournament Opponent Round 2: Virginia Commonwealth Rams

We ain't done yet. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Now things get serious. I think everyone expected us to not really be challenged by St. Peter's. Now we get a very good VCU Rams team that is on a hot streak. On Selection Sunday they heard all the wailing and gnashing of teeth that teams like Colorado and Alabama belonged in the tournament instead of them. So far they have more than proved their worth after hearing that it was NIT or bust when they lost in the Colonial championship game.

This is a team we need to take very seriously. Their conference is a good one that placed three teams in this year's tournament. That conference has also already won three games in this tournament as well. George Mason is a second round team, and VCU has a pair of victories over major conference teams. We will definitely be tested in this next game.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams

2010-11 Record: 25-11, 12-6

2009-10 Record: 27-9, 11-7

Postseason Result: Won College Basketball Invitational

Blog Representation: VCU Ram Nation

Series With Purdue: First Meeting

NCAA Tournament Record: 7-9 (Has never reached Sweet 16)

Time & TV: 7:10pm on TBS

Star-divide


FG 3PT FT Rebounds Misc
G M M A Pct M A Pct M A Pct Off Def Tot Ast TO Stl Blk PF PPG
Jamie Skeen 35 31.6 5.0 9.5 52.6 0.8 2.0 39.4 4.5 6.2 72.5 2.5 4.9 7.4 1.6 1.7 0.5 1.1 1.9 15.3
Bradford Burgess 36 34.2 4.7 9.8 47.7 1.6 4.0 39.3 2.9 3.8 74.6 2.3 4.0 6.3 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 2.1 13.8
Brandon Rozzell 28 25.1 3.8 9.3 41.3 2.5 6.1 40.4 1.6 2.0 77.2 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.5 0.9 1.4 0.0 1.8 11.7
Joey Rodriguez 36 33.4 3.3 9.3 35.0 1.8 5.2 34.0 2.4 2.9 84.5 0.7 2.6 3.3 4.8 2.3 1.5 0.0 2.1 10.7
Ed Nixon 36 25.3 2.6 6.2 42.3 0.8 2.4 35.3 1.3 1.7 75.0 1.0 1.6 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.4 2.7 7.3
Rob Brandenberg 35 13.9 1.9 4.5 41.7 0.9 2.4 35.7 0.7 1.1 65.0 0.7 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.2 5.3
Juvonte Reddic 32 11.2 1.3 2.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.3 65.0 0.9 1.1 2.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 1.8 3.3
Darius Theus 36 15.5 0.9 2.8 31.3 0.1 0.8 14.8 1.1 1.7 66.1 0.3 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.1 0.3 2.3 3.0
Toby Veal 26 10.2 1.2 2.2 51.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 25.0 1.0 1.2 2.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.6 2.5
Troy Daniels 24 5.2 0.7 2.4 29.8 0.7 2.2 32.7 0.0 0.1 33.3 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 2.2
DJ Haley 33 7.8 0.4 0.8 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 30.0 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.9
David Hinton 18 3.7 0.3 0.4 62.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 25.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7

 

This is a team that is tested and used to postseason success. They were in the NCAA's two seasons ago and won last year's CBI Tournament. That may not sound like much, but it is a major postseason tournament and they won the thing. To me, that counts for something. If you're going to be invited to these things you might as well try to win them. Their seniors have won 100 basketball games in the past four seasons.

This season they have played a handful of NCAA Tournament teams, so they are well prepared for this point in the season. They defeated UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason, and Wofford, but lost to Richmond, Tennessee, UAB, Old Dominion (twice) and George Mason. It is a bit of a surprise they earned an at large bid after losing four of their last five regular season game, but I think there is no question they belong.

I think this could be a favorable matchup because they like to press the entire game. If we're turning the ball over like we did last night I think we're in trouble. I have seen us break presses in the past, however. We don't often run on teams, but I think our guys can take advantage of things if we do run. Lewis Jackson obviously can play at a fast pace. I think the rest of our guys can follow suit, even at a shortened roster of seven regulars. Remember the Baylor game when JaJuan Johnson and E`Twaun Moore were freshmen. They said we could run with them and we ended up running them off the floor.

VCU is a very balanced team. 6'9" forward Jamie Skeen will match up very well with JJ. He is also a senior, and he leads them with 15.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. He played his first two seasons at Wake Forest before transferring to VCU. He can match up very well with JJ because he is a 3-point shooter too. He will pull him away from the post defensively and he can play outside with him on the other end. This is where Travis Carroll and possibly Patrick Bade will come in to play. Carroll is a better perimeter defender than he is a post defender, so I could see him handling Skeen outside while JJ stays inside. Skeen shoots almost 40% from three and 52% from the field. He also does well from the line at 72%.

Bradford Burgess is a 6'6" guard that will probably make us miss Kelsey Barlow a little because of his size. He averages 13.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. He can play their E`Twaun role because Joey Rodriguez is their Lewis Jackson. He is a very LewJack-esque point guard because he loves to push the tempo and he plays all over the floor. He is a 5'10" senior point guard that averages 10.7 points and almost five assists per game. He's also a very capable defender in their press.

Finally, you have Brandon Rozzell, another senior averaging better than 11 points per game. He had 26 last night on six three-pointers. He's only 6'2", but last night he proved he is a capable scorer when he needs to be.

The scoring drops off after these four, but their rotation still has Ed Nixon, Rob Brandenberg, Juvante Reddic, Darius Theus, and D.J. Haley. This being their third game in six days we can probably expect them to rotate guys in and attempted to keep everybody fresh. This team likes to score points in transition, and they are just as likely to pull up and shoot the three as attack the basket.

VCU wants to get the game into the 70's. They are 99th nationally in scoring, but 301st in rebounding. That means we have to control the glass again and make sure they don't get second chance opportunities. With their propensity to shoot threes it hoped that fatigue will be a factor with the pace we play. It is hoped, but I don't think we can exactly count on it. Our perimeter defense will be paramount. Ryne Smith, Terone Johnson, and D.J. Byrd need to get out on their shooters. We could also see more of John Hart here, although speculation in me says we won't see him in the tournament if Bubba Day and Dru Anthrop played last night, but he didn't.

I think this is going to be a fun game to watch because we're going to get out in transition and really see what LewJack can do in terms of breaking down the press. It could be a big game for TJ too. Georgetown was incredibly undisciplined last night and struggled to 38% shooting. They also shot very poorly from three. This tells me we cannot settle for jumpers like we did against Iowa and Michigan State. We have to keep attacking the basket.

We should be fine as long as they don't keep hitting threes like they did last night. They are playing with a lot of confidence right now. That confidence will only grow if they get out in a lead and expand it as they did last night. They took apart a Georgetown team that was playing like a Final Four team for part of the season. They are more than capable of beating us, so we need to go back to playing our style of tenacious defense and smart, motion offense.

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Comments

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I heard the reason coach didn't let Hart play

was because he roundhouse-kicked Ryne Smith in the face and shattered his metatarsals.

VCU yesterday looked nothing like VCU on Wednesday. Probably because USC didn’t let VCU get easy baskets.

If VCU is comfortable with the rim in the United Center, Sunday could be a long day. I’m hoping our perimeter defense is better than Georgetown’s. And Gtown played an awful game, especially the 6/26 that their key guys had. Georgetown missed a lot of open 3s.

VCU made some fast break buckets inside. JJ isn’t going to allow that crap. A couple of them I thought, yeah JJ’d swat that. So it’s going to come down to their perimeter game.

The key to me is going to be how Moore plays, especially if he has that 6’6 guard on him – Moore doesn’t play very well over bigger defenders. That and I’d like to see Smith stop the goddamn pump fakes. Concussion or not, someone needs to slap Smith in the mouth for every pump fake he does in game that

a) he could have shot and
b) doesn’t enable him to shoot a 3.

Big East so far:
Pitt – good game, but didn’t destroy
ND – won pretty convincingly
Syracuse – dominated the last 10 minutes, wore down ISU
Louisville – gone
SJU – gone
Cincy – dominated
WVU – pretty good win over a decent Clemson team
Georgetown – gone
Uconn – dominated
Nova – gone
Marquette – beat a very good Xavier team

7-4 the first rd. Not bad. Not exactly great considering their opponents. Big Ten was 5-2 but was very close to 6-1, possibly 7-0, other 5 games weren’t even close.

Pac10 undefeated 3-0, unless you count USC in rd 0, then 3-1. Given their opponents (Georgia, Mich St., Memphis) I’m not terribly surprised. ACC 3-1, Duke was dominant..

Now it starts to get interesting. We start to separate men from boys. And JJ is THE MAN.

by bdub77 on Mar 19, 2011 11:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah but......

The MIGHTY Big East had three teams lose to lower seeds. Think about that, out of eleven teams, three lost to lower seeds. That is 27% of Big East teams lost to a lower seed.

Compare that to the other five power conferences combined. Out of them, only ONE lost to a lower seed. That is, out of 26 teams (from Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, ACC, and $EC), only one lost to a lower seed. That my friends is 4%.

The MIGHTY Big East is playing awful…. but surely Seth Davis and the BIg East lovin’ media will write it off again, and continue their love fest into next years tournament.

by boilerbeck on Mar 19, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, Obviously...

That is because Big East teams beat eachother up in their conference tournament… Unlike every other conference…?

Boiler Up! Hammer Down!

by JuJuan some Moore? on Mar 19, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

With all due respect to VCU

and what they’ve accomplished, I think I would rather face them than Georgetown. Clearly they are capable and we can’t overlook them (I don’t think you can ever overlook any team in the NCAA tourney unless you’re looking to get upset), but I think we should beat them by double digits. My only concern is they like to trap and we haven’t exactly been great at beating the trap. I don’t think they’ll have answers for Smooge or J.J. Also, they will probably be tired from playing their third game in five nights and I expect their 3 point shooting will cool off, but we definitely need to defend the perimeter tenaciously. I think the only way they can win is if we don’t focus or take them seriously and I expect Coach Painter won’t let that happen.

by boilerg on Mar 19, 2011 11:22 AM EDT reply actions  

thank you for noting that it's really 3 games in 5 nights

I’ve seen way too many people say 3rd game in 6 nights. Only one day of rest in between, people.

To your call once more we rally....

by BoilerPaulie on Mar 19, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW...

KenPom has moved us up to 4th overall in their rating system, just behind Kansas at 3 and in front of Pitt at 5. KenPom’s prediction for tomorrow’s game is Purdue 76, VCU 62. 91% confidence. I’m not sure how accurate KenPom has been in tournament games so far, but I still like them odds.

I also have to cosign on what boilerg said – I wanted to play the play-in winner before I knew who won the First Four game because I knew we would match up better against VCU or USC than with Georgetown for a few reasons, one being size and talent at positions. I think we may have an advantage in fatigue as well, with any shred of luck. We shouldn’t have the “1st round bye” problem since we’ve already played a game and should have theoretically gotten the kinks out from resting. Here’s to hoping VCU shoots from beyond the arc tomorrow like Georgetown did yesterday.

To your call once more we rally....

by BoilerPaulie on Mar 19, 2011 12:42 PM EDT reply actions  

As I recall, KenPom had about the same score & confidence level predicted for

the Iowa game too. Generally I think he’s about the best predictor around, but just goes to show we’d better be ready for VCU or we could still get beat. His computer algorithms still haven’t figured out how to measure “ready”. Wouldn’t THAT be an awesome piece of data to have!

by Bluegrass Boiler on Mar 19, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

VCU is #52 in offensive efficiency and #110 in defensive efficiency

By far the least efficient team remaining in the tournament and one of the lowest overall.

Ever Grateful. Ever True.

by PurdueMatt on Mar 20, 2011 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

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