FanPost

Numbers don't lie (non-conf games)

Given my regular job as a Quant, I dig into the numbers for the 13 non-conference games. Here are some stat that you may not be aware of:

1. For all the FT woes, it is really on AJ, TJ, and Lawson, who shot a combined 37% (33-89). Even Sandi and TC are 46% combined (6-13), and they don't shoot much anyway. The rest (excluding Beshears who is 2-2) are a respectable 76% (131-173).

2. On a per-minute basis, our best rebounder is --- Dru Anthrop, who grabs a reb every 2.7 minute. He also leads the team in ast (and also stl) per minute, with an ast every 6 min (LewJack is 6.1), and no TO. I know he only gets to play in garbage time, but give the kid credit b/c he surely plays hard and smart when given the chance. If we are not so loaded in the backcourt I'd really like him to get some real PT. For the record, Beshears also gets an assist every 6.5 minute. The walk-ons are very willing to share the basketball.

3. Excluding Dru, our best rebounders are Sandi (7.8) and TC (7.0). The next group are Robbie (6.1), Lawson (5.9) and Barlow (5.7). The guards are not bad, with AJ (4.9), TJ (4.7) and LewJack (4.6). The numbers are rebounds per 32 minutes.

4. The Big 4 (Robbie, Ryne, LewJack, Barlow) all spot a healthy >2:1 ast/to ratio. The biggest culprit for TO is Sandi, turning over every 9.8 minute (as a comparison, on avg it took Ryne Smith 39.2 minute before committing a TO). As primary ball handler, LewJack and TJ turned over every 13.8 minute, and Barlow (despite his erratic play) turns over every 26.5 minute, so he is surprisingly good. Also, Lawson is surprisingly good in taking care of the basketball, turning over every 33 minute, third best on the team behind Ryne and Robbie.

5. Who is good at getting to the line? Adjusted for minutes played, LewJack leads the team and goes to the line every 5.4 min. Unfortunately, the group that shot the worst (TJ, Lawson, AJ) go to the line quite frequently, every 6.8, 7.5 and 8.8 min. By comparison, the good shooters (Robbie, Ryne) go to the line only every 9 and 25 minutes respectively. Not that we want him to shoot FT, but to go to the line every 50 mins (even Ryne goes every 25 min), it is just unacceptable for a big man. Yes, I am talking about TC. He is just not playing physical enough to draw the fouls.

6. FWIW, Byrd is 8-8 (100%) this year, after going 59% and 63% in his first two seasons. I guess yoga really helps calming him down. It also shows that you *CAN* improve your FTs, drastically.

7. Who are our scorers behind Hummel (adjusted for minutes played)? On a per-32-min basis, Hummel scores 18, followed by AJ (13.6), LewJack (13.5) and Smith (13). The next group is TJ (10.8), GDB (10.7), Byrd (9.8) and Lawson (9.0).

8. R-squared (Robbie and Hummel) shoot a combined 43% from 3-pt land. TJ and Byrd combined for 31%. Barlow, LewJack and AJ combined for 26%. And as much of a whipping boy he has been, TC isn't bad, making 2-of-5 from three, or 40%.

9. TJ and Byrd are the only ones who shot better threes (40% for TC, 32% for DJ) than overall FG% (39% TC, 29% DJ). Also, TC, Sandi, Lawson and TJ also has a higher FG% than FT%.

10. Lawson has a blk every 13 minutes. That is no surprise. But the next three best blockers (adjusted for minute) are all whites: TC (20 mins for every blk), Robbie (21 mins) and Dru (24 mins). Sandi is a disappointing 64 minute for a block. Surprisingly GDB only has 3 blk (even Ryne has 2).

11. In terms of stl, Dru leads the team again (minutely-adjusted) with a steal every 8 minutes. The next ones are GDB (14.5), LewJack (17.5), TJ (17.6) and Lawson (19.6).

12. Lawson picks up a foul every 4.8 min (on avg, if he stays on the floor for 24 min he will foul out). Sandi is not far behind, every 6.7 min. By comparison, Robbie doesn't get the call, who fouls only every 19 mins.

What does the numbers suggest?

a. Barlow, LewJack, and AJ - don't shoot 3s unless wide open AND shot clock running down.

b. TJ, AJ, Lawson - practice, practice, and practice FTs. Ryne, get to the line more! A good shooter like you, pump-fake (I know you love that), get the defender in the air, and draw the foul. So many times you just did the first two steps and dribble away instead of drawing the foul.

c. Lawson, as athletic as you are, grabbing a reb every 5.4 minute is just unacceptable. Even TC gets one every 4.6 minute. Although to be fair, on defense Lawson goes for the blk instead of reb, but still!

d. I think TC is just a guard trapped in a big man's body. He is soft (goes to the line less often than Ryne), third best on the team in shooting 3s (40%), but at least he is trying to get rebs. So really, if you think of him not as a big but as a guard, he is doing just fine ;-)

e. Start Dru! If he plays 32 min, his average will be 8 pts, 12 rebs, 5 ast, 4 stl, 1.3 blk, and 0 TOs! How impressive!! (OK, I am obviously kidding, but in all seriousness, the kid plays hard in his limited minutes, and I won't be surprised if he pulls a John Hart-Illinois type game)

Stuff in the FanPosts is entirely at the discretion of those that post them. They do not represent the views of Hammer & Rails, SBNation, or Purdue University in any way.

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