Numbers don't lie (non-conf games)
by charlespig on Dec 21, 2011 4:04 PM EST
Email
PrintGiven my regular job as a Quant, I dig into the numbers for the 13 non-conference games. Here are some stat that you may not be aware of:
1. For all the FT woes, it is really on AJ, TJ, and Lawson, who shot a combined 37% (33-89). Even Sandi and TC are 46% combined (6-13), and they don't shoot much anyway. The rest (excluding Beshears who is 2-2) are a respectable 76% (131-173).
2. On a per-minute basis, our best rebounder is --- Dru Anthrop, who grabs a reb every 2.7 minute. He also leads the team in ast (and also stl) per minute, with an ast every 6 min (LewJack is 6.1), and no TO. I know he only gets to play in garbage time, but give the kid credit b/c he surely plays hard and smart when given the chance. If we are not so loaded in the backcourt I'd really like him to get some real PT. For the record, Beshears also gets an assist every 6.5 minute. The walk-ons are very willing to share the basketball.
3. Excluding Dru, our best rebounders are Sandi (7.8) and TC (7.0). The next group are Robbie (6.1), Lawson (5.9) and Barlow (5.7). The guards are not bad, with AJ (4.9), TJ (4.7) and LewJack (4.6). The numbers are rebounds per 32 minutes.
4. The Big 4 (Robbie, Ryne, LewJack, Barlow) all spot a healthy >2:1 ast/to ratio. The biggest culprit for TO is Sandi, turning over every 9.8 minute (as a comparison, on avg it took Ryne Smith 39.2 minute before committing a TO). As primary ball handler, LewJack and TJ turned over every 13.8 minute, and Barlow (despite his erratic play) turns over every 26.5 minute, so he is surprisingly good. Also, Lawson is surprisingly good in taking care of the basketball, turning over every 33 minute, third best on the team behind Ryne and Robbie.
5. Who is good at getting to the line? Adjusted for minutes played, LewJack leads the team and goes to the line every 5.4 min. Unfortunately, the group that shot the worst (TJ, Lawson, AJ) go to the line quite frequently, every 6.8, 7.5 and 8.8 min. By comparison, the good shooters (Robbie, Ryne) go to the line only every 9 and 25 minutes respectively. Not that we want him to shoot FT, but to go to the line every 50 mins (even Ryne goes every 25 min), it is just unacceptable for a big man. Yes, I am talking about TC. He is just not playing physical enough to draw the fouls.
6. FWIW, Byrd is 8-8 (100%) this year, after going 59% and 63% in his first two seasons. I guess yoga really helps calming him down. It also shows that you *CAN* improve your FTs, drastically.
7. Who are our scorers behind Hummel (adjusted for minutes played)? On a per-32-min basis, Hummel scores 18, followed by AJ (13.6), LewJack (13.5) and Smith (13). The next group is TJ (10.8), GDB (10.7), Byrd (9.8) and Lawson (9.0).
8. R-squared (Robbie and Hummel) shoot a combined 43% from 3-pt land. TJ and Byrd combined for 31%. Barlow, LewJack and AJ combined for 26%. And as much of a whipping boy he has been, TC isn't bad, making 2-of-5 from three, or 40%.
9. TJ and Byrd are the only ones who shot better threes (40% for TC, 32% for DJ) than overall FG% (39% TC, 29% DJ). Also, TC, Sandi, Lawson and TJ also has a higher FG% than FT%.
10. Lawson has a blk every 13 minutes. That is no surprise. But the next three best blockers (adjusted for minute) are all whites: TC (20 mins for every blk), Robbie (21 mins) and Dru (24 mins). Sandi is a disappointing 64 minute for a block. Surprisingly GDB only has 3 blk (even Ryne has 2).
11. In terms of stl, Dru leads the team again (minutely-adjusted) with a steal every 8 minutes. The next ones are GDB (14.5), LewJack (17.5), TJ (17.6) and Lawson (19.6).
12. Lawson picks up a foul every 4.8 min (on avg, if he stays on the floor for 24 min he will foul out). Sandi is not far behind, every 6.7 min. By comparison, Robbie doesn't get the call, who fouls only every 19 mins.
What does the numbers suggest?
a. Barlow, LewJack, and AJ - don't shoot 3s unless wide open AND shot clock running down.
b. TJ, AJ, Lawson - practice, practice, and practice FTs. Ryne, get to the line more! A good shooter like you, pump-fake (I know you love that), get the defender in the air, and draw the foul. So many times you just did the first two steps and dribble away instead of drawing the foul.
c. Lawson, as athletic as you are, grabbing a reb every 5.4 minute is just unacceptable. Even TC gets one every 4.6 minute. Although to be fair, on defense Lawson goes for the blk instead of reb, but still!
d. I think TC is just a guard trapped in a big man's body. He is soft (goes to the line less often than Ryne), third best on the team in shooting 3s (40%), but at least he is trying to get rebs. So really, if you think of him not as a big but as a guard, he is doing just fine ;-)
e. Start Dru! If he plays 32 min, his average will be 8 pts, 12 rebs, 5 ast, 4 stl, 1.3 blk, and 0 TOs! How impressive!! (OK, I am obviously kidding, but in all seriousness, the kid plays hard in his limited minutes, and I won't be surprised if he pulls a John Hart-Illinois type game)
Stuff in the FanPosts is entirely at the discretion of those that post them. They do not represent the views of Hammer & Rails, SBNation, or Purdue University in any way.
15 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Interesting work...
What is the significance of the 32min break down though? (Why 32 instead of 30 or 20?) Is that just the benchmark for playing in a game on average?
The magic of 32
32 mins make it sound “professional.” The Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the U.S. at an exchange rate of about 7.8 (instead of the more obvious choice 8 that would make the calculation a lot simpler).
32 is also what I deem to be starter minute. So it’s a fairer comparison I thought, since our instinct is to compare to how many ast Jordan Taylor has per game, or how many reb Jared Sullinger has per game.
Thx
Back in the days, I tutored athletes at the IAF (too bad, Drew Brees didn’t need me).
Nice work
I’m quite surprised about Lawson’s rebounding. He should be able to do something when people shoot on the perimeter. Maybe we can track the % of perimeter shots he can rebound vs. the other big men? That would be tricky without more detailed data.
Some other details:
Were you able to conclude that Barlow’s FT woes are probably over?
I’d guess Byrd’s improvement is not significnant, yet.
It’d be way cool if this were a regular installment, but the reason it isn’t already is, it’s got to be a chunk of work.
by Beavis Beefcake on Dec 21, 2011 9:15 PM EST reply actions
Improving FT over the year
Barlow really put in the work on FT, going from 47% to 65% to 71% in his three yrs. That is actually the pattern I observe. For example, LewJack was 59% and 44% in his first 2 yrs, but is at a healthy 71% for the last two.
I think Byrd is too. Although 8 FTs is not a large sample so not significant enough, but Byrd is a good shooter to begin with, so I think his 60% and 63% in the first 2 seasons don’t reflect him. The misses are more mental. As he gets more mature and calmer, he can be a 80% FT shooter imo, and now he’s showing it. He just needs to get to the line more often, which unfortunately he isn’t doing it.
About Lawson...
You may say numbers don’t lie; however, Lawson is a very active defender often looking to block shots which would likely take him out of a rebounding position. He also does a nice job of clearing his opponent which would allow another Purdue defender the chance to rebound. I don’t think he has a rebounding problem nor do I believe Purdue is a lesser rebounding team when he is in the game.
by ZoKnowsDefense on Dec 21, 2011 11:16 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I've already addressed that
Although to be fair, on defense Lawson goes for the blk instead of reb
I agree that on defense, Lawson’s blocking might take him off rebounding posn, but then guys like Mutumbo or Dwight Howard excel in both, so it is not necessarily mutually exclusive. Also, if everyone is whipping TC, then let’s be fair and give Lawson equal treatment when he is performing below expectation. After all, we all agree that Lawson is a ton more athletic than TC and Sandi, yet his rebounding per minute production noticeably trails. And you can’t just excuse him for boxing out his men so the guards can rebound – Sandi and TC also did box out too.
Having said that, Lawson’s rebounding is not my main concern about him. Based on the numbers, he REALLY need to cut down on his fouls, and getting into the physical B1G is just gonna get worse. Plus, he also gets fouled often enough and even if he “improves” to 50% it can be a boost. Those are more glaring weakness than rebounding, which he is not great but not disastrous.
I'm Glad
you put Lawson in the same company as Mutombo and Dwight Howard but it’s not fair to do so. Even JJ had a learning curve to understand when to be aggressive for a block and when to hold rebounding position.
by ZoKnowsDefense on Dec 22, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
My pt w/Mutombo and Dwight
is just that rebounding and block shots are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Obviously I don’t expect Lawson to be as good as both of them, but I won’t give him a free pass on rebs just b/c he blocks shots. At the end of the day though, the main issue with Lawson remains staying on the floor, and he can’t do that if he keeps fouling at this rate.
I Agree
Lawson is barely scratching the surface of his potential and the nuances of defense
by ZoKnowsDefense on Dec 22, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
great post
Lawson its not just the lack of rebounding but the fouls.The rotation is as important as a scouting report who plays when and with who matters when you have him set to sub in and he has 4 fouls the rotation is off this will show up late in games.Travis needs to play 25 minutes per or play the 4 gaurd line up. This was great post you’ll have to keep it up.
Thx, u too
I work as a Quant so crunching numbers is easy and fun for me. I’ve been enjoying your many great updates on the recruits so keep those up too :-)
Yup, agreed that Lawson’s primary issue is his fouls. We just can’t keep him on the floor long enough, and when he has fouls he can’t play aggressive. As for Travis, through the numbers I come to realize that his “problem” is that we are trying to make him a 5 when he has absolutely nothing resembling a 5.
Seriously, give Anthrop some minutes...
I know, I know, all his time played is in “garbage time” but look at what he does when he’s on the floor. He doesn’t play like his hair is on fire, he plays like Jack Bauer and the ball is a bomb being stolen by the terrorists, er, other team. Look at him hopping the scorer’s table last game! He gives maximum effort, all the time. I see a lot of Kramer in him, and even though he may not score a lot, I see him being a spark plug to ignite the team and get people fired up. I truly believe he could be the answer to our second half lulls.
Exactly!!
After digging through the numbers, I’d agree! At the minimum, it sends a msg to the team: your pt is based on how hard you play, and u need to maintain that until the final buzzer. I think he can at least shoot FTs.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Hammer and Rails
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
